PBA: Alaska out for opening day revenge; Barako looking for upset win

The Alaska Aces seek revenge for their conference-opening blowout loss, while the Barako Bull Energy want to prove that they are better than their seeding indicates, when these two teams clash in the first game of the PBA Commissioner's Cup quarterfinals Sunday at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. What happened before Two-time league MVP Willie Miller outplayed his squad's import, top-scoring for the Energy  with 25 points, including shooting 6-of-6 during a crucial third-quarter run that turned a close game into a blowout. Coming out of the halftime break, the Energy found themselves juiced up, outscoring their opponents 33-17 in that period, behind 56 percent field goal shooting for the quarter. Their opponents on the other hand, managed just six field goals in the entire 12 minutes, digging themselves too much of a hole to get out of. Five Barako players finished in double-digit scoring in the blowout win.  

Barako Bull	February 10, 2012	Alaska
98	Points	78
8 / 25	Three-pointers made/attempted	1 / 12
45.5%	Field goal percentage	36.9%
10 / 14	Free throws made/attempted	15 / 22
18	Assists	14
11	Turnovers	19
22	Turnover points	12
Dermarr Johnson -19	Import scoring	Adam Parada - 16
43	Bench scoring	32

The same Barako Bull squad you saw that dominated Alaska won't be on the floor come Sunday, as this team will be on its third import by then. Johnson bowed out due to injury, his replacement Rodney White had to return to the United States to take care of his sick father, and so now the Energy are in the unenviable position of having to debut a new player, Reggie Okosa, in a quarterfinals series. Despite that, the Energy have to be thrilled that they're playing Alaska. That Commissioner's Cup-opener had their biggest margin of victory, 20 points, and they're going to be hoping they can pull off a repeat of it. Barako Bull's recipe for the win was simple: defend the three-point shot and score points off turnovers, both of which they were able to do with aplomb. That being said, this game was the only time they held an opponent to single-digit three-point shooting percentage (though they did manage to force 16 percent shooting in two other games) and that was only the second time they managed more than 20 points off turnovers. The plan is sound, but can they execute it? On the flipside, Alaska has played much better since that opening loss, splitting their remaining eight games, which is why they're the higher seed. A lousy shooting night by star point guard LA Tenorio definitely set them back (8 points, 0-of-5 from 3pt, 4-of-14 overall), but they can take comfort in the fact that they've won games shooting worse from outside (they were 1-of-13 versus Powerade in their last elimination round game) and that was the only time this conference that they conceded 20 or more turnover points (they've in fact, had one game, versus Ginebra, where they allowed just a single measly turnover point). Outlooks

Barako Bull (5th seed)	AVERAGES	Alaska (4th seed)
93.11	Points	90.44
24.56	Three-point shots attempted	13.56
56.44	Two-point shots attempted	68.44
47.56	Rebounds	50.89
16.11	Assists	22.56
2.11	Blocks	5.78
14.44	Turnovers	16.44
25.56	Fouls	22.00
6.33	Fast break points	10.89
14.67	Turnover points	11.89
17.67	Three-point attempts allowed	21.78
79.67	Field goal attempts allowed	87.33
29.89	Free throw attempts allowed	24.33
12.44	Fast break points allowed	15.56

Barako Bull plays a slow-it-down game with very few assists, leading to lots of three-point attempts. Against Alaska though, that may not be a very bad thing. The Aces are the top team at swatting shots, leading to a lot of teams deciding to jack up triples instead, but since that's already the Energy's strategy, then why not? The Energy might want to also consider running more often. It's not normally a facet of their game, which is why they average the fewest fast break points, but Alaska concedes the most points in that department. It's not as if Miller is a slouch in the speed department, after all. On the other hand, the tactic Alaska ought to employ is simple: attack, attack, attack, as the Energy have no one that can discourage driving down the lane, thanks to their league-low figure in blocked shots. Because of that weakness, they’re forced to foul and send guys to the line instead to earn those points, so the Aces will need to convert from the line. Of course, this is all based on how the team played with White and Johnson, imports who, despite their size, played more often on the wing (both normed 6.5 three-point attempts per game) and weren't particularly good at guarding the rim (Johnson had 1.25 blocks per game, while White was even worse, 0.75 per game). Okosa is supposed to be more of a post player, and was noted for being a solid rebounder and shot blocker while in Korea. If he's as good as advertised, the Aces may need a change in game plan.   X-Factors Willing Willie

Averages	MIN	PTS	3P%	FG%	FTA	REB	AST
Willie Miller	34.22	17.00	39.29%	45.61%	5.33	4.33	3.22

  How far Barako Bull goes will likely be answered by how far Miller is willing to take them. To whit, he's the only local on the Energy that averages double-digit scoring, double-digit field goal attempts, and more than three foul shot attempts. He'll be a marked man from the word "go," as the Aces will try their hardest to make someone else beat them, and how he responds to that might determine this series. Does he force up bad shots against a double-team? Or does he try to find an open teammate and trust that he can knock down a shot? Ace-high Skyrus

Cyrus Baguio	PTS	3P%	FG%	AST	STL	FLS
In wins	22.0	44.00%	47.56%	3.40	1.00	2.6
In losses	13.5	40.00%	42.00%	2.75	0.25	3.5

LA Tenorio is "The Lieutenant," but "Skyrus" is the scorer, and the Aces' main gun. When he's got it going, he could probably match Miller point-for-point, which would then allow the superior Alaska supporting cast to out-perform their Barako Bull counterparts. One interesting stat: the Aces are 5-1 in games where Baguio scores at least 18 points, so that could be a huge barometer for how far the Aces last in this tourney. — JVP, GMA News