Full-Court Press: Previewing the 2012-13 PBA Philippine Cup postseason

The 2012-13 PBA Finals kick-off Wednesday, with the cast of 10 having been whittled down to eight, following a 14-game elimination round schedule.

Top-seeded Talk 'N Text face the upstart Air21 Express, while San Mig Coffee clash against the Petron Blaze Boosters in a battle of sister teams, with TNT and SMC bearing twice-to-beat advantages. Meanwhile, the best-of-three battles have the Alaska Aces pitted against the Meralco Bolts, and the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters crossing the path of Barangay Ginebra San Miguel.

Which teams will make it all the way to the Finals, while others fall by the wayside? We interviewed five keen basketball minds and asked them how they see the first PBA conference of the new season plays out.

1) Of the top two teams, the Talk 'N Text Tropang Texters (#1) and the San Mig Coffee Mixers (#2), which is more likely to reach the Finals?

Mico Halili, The Final Score columnist, PBA anchor - Talk 'N Text, because they're Talk 'N Text. They're just so systematic. Some teams have an "on-switch" and an "off-switch," but Talk 'N Text have no "off-switch," they're just "on" all the time. I also think people underestimate the fact that they had to do some serious adjustments coming from coach Chot [Reyes] to coach Norman [Black]. I'm not saying coach Norman overhauled the system, they did retain a lot of things they were doing under coach Chot, but he's still a new coach. And he's still dealing with a new set of players. He just came from Ateneo and he was there for years. People underestimate the amount of adjustment that the players and coach Norman had to make together, and yet they're number one. I don't think anyone expects them not to be in the Finals. That's how good they are.

Magoo Marjon, PBA anchor, FTW panelist - With all due respect to Air21, Meralco and Alaska, TnT should have the easier trek to the Finals. San Mig has to take on the preseason "strongest team on paper" in Petron and the RoS-Ginebra survivor to try and get there. This is where regular season performance is rewarded. The seedings work. It pays to be on top.

Chuck Araneta, From the Stands panelist - The biggest problem that TnT has faced this year is finding ways to entertain themselves while toying with the entire league. It's been a dominant run for the defending champs, and there aren't any signs of them slowing down. While the San Mig Coffee Mixers are an elite team in their own right, they've shown flashes of inconsistency and difficulty in putting the ball in the basket. Talk N' Text have shown no such problems.

Polo Bustamante, From the Stands panelist - The Texters are the clear favorites to grab that first Finals slot. This is a team that's just too complete. Coach Norman Black finds a way for every player on his roster, down to the twelfth guy, to be productive on the floor. They may not be as overwhelming offensively, but their defense is the best that it's been in the past couple of years. It would be a huge upset if TNT misses the Finals.

Renee Fopalan, GMA News Online PBA writer - TNT. The Tropa have been more solid and consistent. When James Yap and PJ Simon are shut down, San Mig find it difficult to carry on. Coach Black's squad has just too many weapons. Ali Peek's on the block for stability, while Jayson Castro and Larry Fonacier can both produce points and close out games on any given day. Oh, and remember Ranidel De Ocampo? TNT will cruise to the finals, and it would be a surprise if they don't win it all.


2) Of the other six teams, Rain or Shine (#3), Meralco (#4), Alaska (#5), Ginebra (#6), Petron (#7), and Air21 (#8), which is in the best position for a Powerade Tigers-like run to the Finals?

Halili - It's going to sound weird, but Petron, which is not your classic underdog team, because they're not supposed to be underdogs, since they're super loaded with talent. But they do have the talent to make a sort of miracle run to the Finals only because they have to start all the way from number seven. The second reason is maybe they can turn things around. Maybe they can turn Petronovela into something extremely positive, something inspiring, something people can look back to and say, "Wow they came back from all their problems." Maybe that's them.

Marjon - To have a Powerade-like run, it's gotta come from the lower-seeded teams at least. So of Air21, Petron, Ginebra and Alaska, Petron might have the best shot. If the Blaze Boosters get it together and find a way to take two away from San Mig, the momentum, and more importantly, the confidence from that should carry into the semis vs either RoS or Ginebra.

Araneta - Only one of these teams will be welcoming back a top rookie pick in Chris Tiu and a reigning Rookie of the Year in Paul Lee. With an entire backcourt out for the elimination round, they still ended up as the third seed. What more when they have a great floor leader in Tiu, as well as another dangerous closer in Lee to pair with Jeff Chan? In retrospect, the Elasto Painters making it to the Finals wouldn't be that big a shock. They deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Talk N' Text and San Mig Coffee.

Bustamante - Meralco is one of the most exciting teams in the PBA. You just can't tell which Bolts team will take the floor at any given moment in the game. But this is a team that has the firepower and talent to make a huge run in the playoffs.  Sol Mercado is playing like the Best Player of the Conference, and he has the ability to single-handedly carry this team. Given a couple of breaks and a few Ryan Gregorio inspirational speeches,  and we might see this Bolts team in the Finals.

Fopalan - Rain or Shine. The Elasto Painters have a solid group of role players who are not afraid to get down and dirty as they have totally embraced their role as the bad boys of the PBA. The return of Paul Lee and even Chris Tiu in the line-up relieves Jeff Chan of the scoring burden. If either of the Bruise Brothers in JR Quiñahan or Beau Belga click, add to that the defensive presence of Gabe Norwood in the wings, and you can expect Rain or Shine to reach the Finals again.


3) Which rookie will have the biggest impact for his team in the postseason?

Halili - I think Calvin Abueva, among all the rookies, has the biggest effect on the league, as a whole. I've seen how fans respond to Calvin Abueva and I'm not just talking about Alaska fans. I'm talking about Ginebra fans, Petron fans, Meralco fans, I mean lahat ng fan bases, may effect si Calvin Abueva, and that says a lot about his attitude and his fighting spirit. Even when he fumbles, even when he's doing something wrong, it's just so dramatic. Whether you're in the venue or watching on TV, his impact is just so palpable.  

Marjon - It's gotta be the Beast. Calvin Abueva should continue to inspire and amaze the Aces and push them beyond their their potential.

Araneta - Meralco have Sol Mercado and Mark Caguioa to do the heavy lifting when Cliff Hodge is out of control. Chris Ellis, for how electric he's been for Barangay Ginebra, is still very raw, and is deferring to Mark Caguioa and LA Tenorio. Petron have no idea what to do with their 6'10 Junemar Fajardo. And so Alaska's Calvin Abueva will have, and needs to have, a big impact this postseason for his team to advance. Judging by his effect on Alaska's three-game winning streak heading into their match-up with Meralco, the Beast is up for the challenge.

Bustamante - The Beast in the playoffs is scary. Calvin Abueva is used to playing under the spotlight. He's been a primetime player ever since his San Sebastian Stags days and he always reserves his best games for the biggest stages. You can expect a more energetic, more volatile and more exciting Abueva as Alaska starts playing bigger, pressure-packed games.

Fopalan - Calvin Abueva. He has erased all doubts about his ability to excel in professional basketball, on a team that is based on no less than the Triangle Offense. It also helps that Abueva is running fast breaks with Jayvee Casio and Cyrus Baguio, allowing him to be a really lethal option in the Alaska offense. His point production, especially in the clutch, sets him apart from Cliff Hodge, who goes toe-to-toe with him in the hustle department. Expect the rookie to bother Mac Cardona and Cliff Hodge in the first round, leaving Sol Mercado to do everything. On his own. Again.


4) Who has been the Best Player of the Conference so far?

Halili - Sol Mercado. You can't find a Best Player of the Conference on Talk 'N Text; they just don't play that way. James Yap is James Yap, but you have to give Sol a certain edge because of how he improved as a player. If James Yap is contending for BPC, no one is surprised. But Sol, you give a little sentimental edge, because he worked on his game. He worked on his maturity, worked on being a leader, worked on being a playmaker, and for a guy to lead his team in points and assists, that's huge.

Marjon - Should be a toss-up between Calvin Abueva, for the same reasons as above and the fact that he's been punching out nearly the same numbers as he did in the NCAA, and Sol Mercado, who's been leading the Association in PPG and APG. That Meralco offense seems tailor-made for the Sol Train.

Araneta - Arwind Santos may have the best stats in the conference thus far, but his team barely made it into the quarterfinals. The complete opposite to this is Sol Mercado, who has been playing out of his mind while elevating Meralco to a surprising fourth seed. Leading the league in points and assists is no easy task, and Mercado has become The Man for the Bolts. Not only that, he's also embraced the role of the Closer for Meralco, who have turned to him during big moments to find ways to win. The Sol Train has been electric all conference long, and he's been the best.

Bustamante - Hands down, Sol Mercado is the Best Player in the conference. Yes, James Yap and Mark Caguioa have been doing their thing, but they also have a lot more help than Mercado. He's carrying a heavier burden for this young Meralco team, playing as both the primary scoring option and the lead playmaker for the Bolts. He's carried them to several wins and has not been afraid to take the big shots. Mercado deserves the BPC award.

Fopalan - Calvin Abueva. More than the monster numbers, it's The Beast's defensive intensity and hustle that has made him out to be the instant game changer for the Aces. The rookie is a joy to watch. His methods and intentions may be questionable at times, but he loves the game and isn't afraid to show it. As early as now, his on-court personality and performance makes him a very valuable commodity not just to his franchise, but for the league as a whole.


5) Whose injury had the bigger impact on his team's ability to reach the postseason - Enrico Villanueva missing the last five games for Barako Bull or Gary David getting sidelined six games for GlobalPort?

Halili - When you look at the performances of the two teams, when the two players were healthy, both teams lost a couple of close games, but Barako I felt had the muscle to really go at it with the stronger teams. When you have Enrico [Villanueva] and [Mick] Pennisi, and [Doug] Kramer, yun yung lamang ng Barako sa GlobalPort. Yes GlobalPort had Willie [Miller] and Gary [David], but we never really saw it work, because Gary [David] got hurt. With Barako, we saw it work. Maybe not to the point where they would make the top two, but other teams had a hard time with them because of their massive size. So because of their frontline advantage, I would say Barako would have made it.

Marjon - Hard to say really. Gary David will always be Gary David, but it just seemed like GlobalPort never really figured out what kind of team they wanted to be throughout the tourney. And while Enrico Villanueva had his renaissance of sorts cut short, there were still a number of more than able bigs left on that Barako frontline to keep them competitive. Those two, or their absences, weren't really what their teams missed.

Araneta - Even with David in the fold, there's no guarantee that GlobalPort could have had a better record than what they're displaying right now. Their struggles went beyond El Granada's presence or absence on the team. But for the Barako Bull, Villanueva was everything to them. He was a human double-double, and sealed the one advantage Barako had over most teams, which was their rugged frontcourt. Odds are that if Villanueva didn't get injured, Barako would have had a better shot at making it to the next round. Sadly, we'll never know.

Bustamante - The loss of Enrico Villanueva was just too much to overcome for Barako Bull. Coming into this season, the question everyone had on their mind is "Who will be the focal point of this Barako Bull team?" A rejuvenated Villanueva emerged as the main scoring option as well as the emotional leader for this team. When his knee buckled under him, the high hopes of the Energy Cola came crashing down with him.

Fopalan - Enrico Villanueva. There were so many games that could have gone Barako's way. Without Villanueva, Barako certainly missed both his offensive and defensive presence inside. The void left by the Raging Bull also gave Doug Kramer twice the workload, as the only other real reliable big man for Barako. If Villanueva were around, Barako would be at the sixth or seventh spot, easy. - AMD, GMA News