FilOil: Defending champs NU battle late-addition Letran

One team entered the quarterfinals by design, the other by accident. 

 

The NU Bulldogs (#1 in Group A) kept the victory train chugging, steam-rolling all eight opponents in Group A play and keeping their winning streak alive, which totals 19 straight wins from last year. The title defense has been going great, and although there were minor hiccups, namely close games against FEU, SBC, AdU, and CSB, Bobby Ray Parks and the ‘Dogs did their due diligence and won those games anyway, while dominating the four other teams.

This is a squad that features the core of last season’s FilOil titlists, and although Cameroonians Emmanuel Mbe and Henri Betayene are injured, while valuable reserve Jul-Ashri Ignacio is no longer around, the team replaced them with more-than-adequate replacements that round out another championship-caliber roster (on paper, at least).

 

The Letran Knights (#4 in Group B) were surprise entrants to the quarterfinals, after Ateneo management decided to pull out of the tourney's postseason due to a spate of injuries. The Knights had a decent eliminations turnout, going 4-4 (with wins against SSC-R, EAC, SWU, and LPU) under the tutelage of new head coach Caloy Garcia, and are now Group B’s fourth seed, a position that Letran and sister school UST jockeyed for in the last two weeks of the elims.

The problem with Letran though is that it lost all four of their games to the top four teams in their division, but let’s credit that to adjustment under their new coach and the loss of several key players in Kevin Alas, Jam Cortes, and to some extent, Jun-jun Alas.

It’s too early to say that this scenario fits one of the "top dog versus underdog" archetype, because these Knights were NCAA finalists last season, and know a thing or two about playing under the bright lights of playoff basketball.

These Bulldogs on the other hand finally cracked the UAAP’s Final Four, but failed to match the Growling Tigers’ intensity, bowing out in last year's semis, just when everyone thought the Henry Sy-backed NU team would go all the way.

Either way, it would be sprightly to see the Knights energize themselves with a come-from-behind win or to watch the Bulldogs make it a 20-win streak.

 

The Letran Knights will win because...

 

Caloy Garcia and his cavalry virtually have nothing to lose, while the Bulldogs face the burden of protecting the FilOil crown, despite the tournament’s nature as preseason preparation for  the NCAA and the UAAP.

Everyone loves a good underdog story, and the stage is set for the Knights to come up with an upset.

 

Center Raymond Almazan has emerged for the Knights, vastly improving his post play and making good use of his height and length, averaging norms of 13.0 points and 10.3 rebounds, up from 6.1 points and 8.8 rebounds from the previous NCAA season.

The Knights turn to him when there are no options left on offense, and he has shown flashes of dominance, as can be gleaned from their their last-second win against EAC (16 points, 12 rebounds) and their overtime victory against SSC-R (27 points, 5 rebounds, 4 blocks). NU centers Alfred Aroga and Troy Rosario will have to get some help defending this 6-7 stalwart, who has also toughened up thanks to some PBA D-League exposure.

 

Former Letran Squire Rey Nambatac has also been a revelation, showing a veteran swagger in just his first year of collegiate basketball. He steered the Knights to their first preseason win, against the SWU Cobras, top-scoring for his team with 16 points, and has gone on to average 11.6 points throughout the tourney, good for third in his team. He will be checked by none other than Parks, but Nambatac never backed down against the likes of Jeric Teng and Kiefer Ravena in the course of the eliminations.

 

The rest of the veterans are still there to hold the fort for Letran, such as Mark Cruz (12.1 points, 39 percent shooting from three-point territory) and Jamil Gabawan (6.3 points, 7.3 rebounds), although someone will have to step up for the sweet-shooting Jonathan Belorio, who sits out with a fractured hand.

The NU Bulldogs will win because...

 

They have an inside-outside machine that systematically puts away their opponents by converting on high-percentage shots. The team is currently number one in the league in three-point shooting at 34 percent, while ranking second in the league in field goal percentage at 43 percent. Most of the open looks come from Parks, whose drive-and-dish game usually ends up in an open three-pointer from one of his teammates, camping out beyond the arc.

 

Shooters they have aplenty, as the team retains Denice Villamor (10-of-29 on three-pointers) and Jeoffrey Javillonar (5-of-20), while adding U-18 team captain JJ Alejandro (10-of-21). Big man Kyle Neypes (5-of-11) has also extended his range.
 

The Bulldogs have also offset the loss of Mbe with Alfred Aroga, an active big man with the handles of a small forward and the probably the best hops of any foreign player in the UAAP. Aroga has shown the ability to affect inside and out (15.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks), which will pose a problem for the likes of Almazan and Gabawan.

 

The X-Factors

 

For CSJL: Jamil Gabawan has shown the ability to score by muscling his way in or through finesse. Although his better performances might be considered flashes in the pan, he is a thicker, more able body than the likes of Jovet Tambeling, Ford Ruaya, and Rey Publico, who have so far been much more hit-or-miss in the preseason.

 

For NU: Gelo Alolino played in just the last two elimination round games of NU due to injury, but he should be ready to go now. Now expected to take the starting point guard role from Robin Rono, he'll have to shore up his defense, use his girth and height to neutralize Mark Cruz’s quickness. Look for him to frustrate Letran’s offense by forcing his counterpart into contested shots.

 

And the winner is...

 

NU, because Letran will be overwhelmed with match-ups, especially when both coaches sit their starters. Letran’s bench is not a group of stiffs, but at the same time, they lack the skills to really support their first five. NU’s bench has shown that it can sustain the energy that coach Eric Altamirano’s starters play with, especially budding big man Troy Rosario, who is the team’s third-leading scorer (8.3 points and 7.8 rebounds), and Alejandro (6.9 points) on 47 percent shooting. - CLP/AMD, GMA News