FilOil: San Beda Red Lions and NU Bulldogs figure in opening day rematch for Finals berth

On one hand, you can say they’re preparing for the upcoming season. On the other hand, you can say they’re chasing history.

The National University Bulldogs are seeking a return to the FilOil Flying V Hanes Premier Cup Finals in the hope of becoming just the second team to notch back-to-back titles (DLSU in '06 and '07 were first). In comparison, the San Beda College Red Lions are out to improve on their fourth-place finish from last season, with the goal of becoming just the second NCAA squad to win this competition (San Sebastian in '10).

Both teams emerged from tough wins in the quarterfinals, where the NU Bulldogs survived the feisty Letran Knights, 69-67, while the San Beda Red Lions clawed back to overcome the DLSU Green Archers, 66-63.

However, the grind doesn’t get easier for either team. San Beda and National University are almost evenly-matched, ranking within the top five in terms of points scored and allowed per 100 possessions for the run of the tournament. That said, the Red Lions have an axe to grind against the Bulldogs heading into this semifinal match.

San Beda fell victim to a 23-point performance by Ray Ray Parks on opening day, when the two-time UAAP MVP buried a game-tying three-pointer with 2.5 seconds to play in regulation and dominated in overtime to secure a 73-71 win. The Red Lions aren’t used to being embarrassed on national television, and will no doubt seek their pound of flesh against the up-and-coming Bulldogs.

But in this match, National University has to juggle the reintegration of key cogs from their last FilOil championship, namely veterans center Emmanuel Mbe and point guard Gelo Alolino. The team has been undefeated without their help, but the Bulldogs needs to make sure that working them back on to the court doesn’t subtract from the team as a whole.

The NU Bulldogs will win because...

National U has the personnel to make life hell for the Red Lions. On offense, Alfred Aroga and Troy Rosario are tall, athletic forward/centers who are quicker than most of their counterparts and can extend their range to around 15 feet from the rim. The pair are also the biggest reason why the Bulldogs are the best rim protectors in the league, averaging 5.33 blocks a game.

It’s bad enough that the Red Lions aren’t a shot-blocking team (2.55 blocks a game, 13th), but it’s worse when their bigs have to be pulled out of the paint to challenge shots and leave the lanes vulnerable. More so, Mbe’s return means more fouls to burn on Ola Adeogun, allowing NU to keep a big presence on the floor for longer periods of time.

The Bulldogs also own the league’s fourth-highest free throw rate at 27.06 percent, meaning they're getting to the line more than a quarter of the time. And once they're at the stripe, they're hitting their free throws at a league-best 72.60 percent. San Beda in comparison ranks 12th at 22.32 percent, while converting at 68.62 percent.

Last but not the least, Ray Parks is arguably the best collegiate player in the country right now and San Beda will be pressed to limit him and the opportunities he creates for his teammates. And if they zone up against Parks, the Bulldogs can make them pay from beyond the arc. National U ranks second in three-point shooting, making 33.15 percent of their attempts from long-range.

Beyond Parks, count on Denice Villamor to hit from range, and watch out for JJ Alejandro’s streaky shooting to provide the Bulldogs the occasional lift. Between staying home on shooters and sending help towards Parks on the move, the Red Lions will be forced to pick their poison.


The SBC Red Lions will win because...

San Beda pick their spots on offense and have a knack for finding their way to the basket. Credit goes to Rome Dela Rosa’s reliable midrange game and Art Dela Cruz’s skill around the basket, but a lot of discipline also goes into setting picks and screens to get their players open. That’s largely responsible for San Beda’s second-highest field goal percentage within the arc at 47.40 percent, which also boosts their overall field goal shooting to a league-high 42.73 percent. In contrast, National U shoots 39.79 percent within the arc (15th) and 37.63 percent (12th) overall.

The Red Lions are going to need Adeogun to perform well against National University’s front line. The Cameroonian leads the league in field goal makes, shooting at an incredible 70.18 percent. While his free throw shooting, hovering at around the 50 percent mark, is rather suspect, he’s their strongest bet for a quick two points.

Lastly, San Beda presents the challenge of having two quality point guards, Baser Amer and Francis Abarcar, running the show. The pair also plays together at times, such as at the end of their La Salle quarterfinals match. But staggered playing time allows the team to be a scoring threat for much longer.

Amer is a floor general in every sense of the word and maintains the balance of this team to the tune of 4.86 assists a game (4th), while Abarcar is an efficient scorer who can anchor the Red Lions’ second five.

The X-Factor:

For NU: Emmanuel Mbe has been more of a liability than asset for National U in this tournament. He’s shooting terribly at 18.18 percent for 13 foul-plagued minutes in two games. He’s clearly not 100 percent healthy but he needs to be more of a deterrent inside against the Red Lions’ attack.

For SBC: Ryusei Koga is still the designated shooter of this team, but he only hits 16.67 percent of his team-high 3.33 three-point attempts per game. It’s true that Koga’s found other ways to score, off penetration moves or coming off screens, but San Beda’s going to need him to draw the defense out whenever they want to run sets for other players like Amer or Dela Rosa.

And the winner is...

No one will be surprised if San Beda returns to the finals for the fourth time in the history of the tournament, but this game is the Bulldogs’ to lose. National U takes this one, if only because they have the personnel to wear Adeogun down, and because the Parks-Aroga combination has been devastating to watch. Expect the game to be tight throughout the first three quarters until Parks blows the Red Lions out of the water in the final frame.  - AMD, GMA News