FilOil: Feline fight for third as San Beda Red Lions and UST Growling Tigers collide

The battle for third place in the FilOil Flying V Hanes Premier Cup can’t be overlooked. Both the San Beda Red Lions and University of Santo Tomas are looking to patch up their wounded pride and end their preseason preparations on a hopeful note with a victory against a quality opponent.

San Beda, who are looking to better last year's fourth-place finish, were shut out of the second half in the semifinals by the NU Bulldogs’ defense. In comparison, UST played two and a half quarters of good basketball until complacency and foul trouble set in, allowing the UE Red Warriors to bypass them for a shot at the title.

Both teams’ offensive ratings are practically the same (UST at fourth with 94.14, San Beda at fifth with 94.15), so this means attention to defense will play a bigger role for both teams. The Red Lions rank sixth with an 88.67 Defensive Rating, while the Tigers are sixth-worst at 93.76.

At first glance their front courts are similarly built: dominating centers (Ola Adeogun/Karim Abdul) paired with Swiss Army knife-type power forwards (Art Dela Cruz/Aljon Mariano) and scoring small forwards (Rome Dela Rosa/Kevin Ferrer). UST’s Jeric Teng gives them an advantage at the two-guard spot over Ryusei Koga, while Baser Amer is a craftier and more experienced point guard than the Tigers’ Ed Daquioag. But the different tendencies of every player makes this game interesting to watch.

The SBC Red Lions will win because...

This game depends on which big man is able to assert himself better, and Adeogun is well-suited to step up to the task. He averages 11.3 points per game and shoots close to 70 percent in the shaded area, but he’ll be more valuable on the defensive end in forcing Abdul away from the basket. If he can avoid foul trouble, that throws a wrench into the Tigers’ offensive plans.

Between both rosters, Dela Rosa and Dela Cruz are more efficient scorers than their counterparts in Teng and Mariano. Dela Rosa has an efficient field goal percentage of 52.57 percent while Dela Cruz is 50.6 percent, compared to Teng and Mariano’s 36.46 and 45 percent, respectively.

While Dela Rosa was conspicuously missing on offense during their match against NU (four points, 2-of-7 shooting), look for him to come back and hit his midrange shots (not an easy task against Ferrer). Also, Dela Cruz can probably match up better against Mariano on defense. He’s a serviceable two-way player who can defend quicker bigs, and he can keep Mariano away from offensive rebounds to limit the Tigers’ production off hustle points.

This show doesn’t get going though without Amer running things from the point guard position. Trust in San Beda to pick off errant passes by UST, who give up the most fast break points in the league at 10.1 per game. But moreover Amer needs to control the tempo of the game to San Beda’s liking, in the halfcourt where he can pick apart the Tigers’ sub-par defense.

Throughout the tournament, Amer has been more willing to set up his teammates, but he has the height and the experience to take advantage of whoever UST throws at him. Amer will certainly draw second or third defenders, and he’ll be relied on to make the Tigers pay.


The UST Growling Tigers will win because...

Teng and Mariano have carried UST for most of the tournament, and they’re both top-five scorers in the league with 18.5 and 17.6 points per game, respectively. While Mariano has continued to be a legitimate triple-threat for the Tigers, Teng has added a post-up game to his repertoire which he brings out on occasion. If San Beda slows down the game to their liking, Teng has that extra option if he’s covered by anyone not named Rome Dela Rosa or Anthony Semerad.

However the crux of this team is, and always will be, Abdul. The Cameroonian has recovered nicely from his injury and has normed 16 points and 13.5 rebounds on 60 percent shooting in the postseason, playing above his tournament averages of 10.67 PPG, 9.78 RPG on a 54.9 percent shooting clip. But even if he doesn’t score, pressure on the defense to contain him alone triggers a series of motions for the Tigers. Abdul is quite adept at passing out of double teams that ideally lead to, after a couple of passes, triples for Teng, Ferrer or sixth man sniper Clark Bautista.

Abdul may also be the key in countering the Red Lions’ defense: he owns the league’s best free throw rate (the ratio between free throw and field goal attempts) at 78.43 percent. And UST’s status as a top-five offensive rebounding team (35.52 percent offensive rebounding rate, fifth) will be key against this San Beda squad, whose poor defensive rebounding neutralized Baser Amer’s fourth quarter rally in their semifinal match versus the Bulldogs.

The X-Factor:

For San Beda: If Adeogun is unavailable on the floor, the task of containing Abdul falls to Kyle Pascual. But apart from his defensive duties, Pascual will need to get his midrange game going to draw Abdul out of the paint. If Pascual can force his opponent to challenge him from beyond 10-feet, it increases the likelihood of freeing up Dela Cruz and Dela Rosa for two inside.

For UST: Because of all the attention that his teammates get, Kevin Ferrer is flying under many radars in this preseason. He’s a more composed player this year in terms of choosing shots and making them, particularly from three-point territory at 35.9 percent, and all the while using his lanky frame to bother the opposing team’s best player.

And the winner is...

The numbers say San Beda, but it’ll be close because Abdul causes all sorts of trouble in the middle. If Adeogun can stay on the floor, while Dela Rosa and Dela Cruz do damage in the paint, the Red Lions win this. But you’ll never know when the shots begin to fall for a Pido Jarencio-coached team, which might be enough to put them over the top. - AMD, GMA News