2014 NBA conference semifinals preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers

#1 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 defeated #8 Dallas Mavericks in seven games
#5 Portland Trail Blazers 54-28 defeated #4 Houston Rockets in six games

Season series: Tied 2-2

November 2: Spurs 105-115 @Blazers
January 17: Blazers 109-100 @Spurs
February 19: Spurs 111-109 @Blazers
March 12: Blazers 90-103 @Spurs


“Nine-tenths left. A three wins the series. It’s Lillard! He got the shot off! Oh my god! Good! And the Blazers win a series for the first time in fourteen years!”

From Bonzi Wells to Ruben Patterson to Brandon Roy, the Portland Trail Blazers have always fielded underachieving squads that hardly made noise in the playoffs since the turn of the millennium. Now armed with a devastating one-two punch in LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, the Portland Trail Blazers expect to put up quite a fight against a San Antonio Spurs unit that was pushed to the brink by the upstart Dallas Mavericks.

The defending Western Conference Champions are brimming with confidence after a game seven rout that reestablished their reputation as the team to beat. While the majority of Portland’s core is relishing their first postseason series victory, Tim Duncan just won his 31st playoff series and looks to polish off another upstart foe together with perennial running-mates Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

#1 Can Aldridge continue his torrid scoring pace?

Aldridge has seen different looks thrown at him against Houston, with Dwight Howard, Omer Asik, and Terrence Jones taking turns forcing him to miss on midrange jumpers. This series could have Aldridge on a lot of faceups against Tiago Splitter, who was pivotal in holding Dirk Nowitzki to a mortal 42.9 percent on the floor and an uncharacteristic 8.3 percent from downtown in the previous round.

If Blazers supporters are hoping for another 46 and 43 outburst from Aldridge, the Spurs will only give a remote possibility of a repeat performance. If Splitter is unable to intimidate Aldridge consistently, Duncan is still a viable option, an all-world defender who can frustrate Aldridge into contested shots the entire series.

#2 What makes Parker and Lillard so effective and fun to watch?

The French playmaker remains one of the most fluid operators on the court, with his change-of-direction pace a breathtaking display to watch. When Parker sets up at the top of the key and prepares one of his patented spin moves and layup in one seamless motion, defenses are rendered useless. With averages of 19.9 points and 4.7 assists, he can single-handedly do damage with 6-0 and 8-0 runs that force opposing coaches to reevaluate their defensive sets.

Lillard operates with a confidence unlike any other point guard in the league. The second-year guard’s stoic demeanor underlies his lethal downtown shooting, upping his 39.4 percent regular season rate to a blistering 48.9 percent in the first round, including the series-culminating game-winner against the Rockets. He is not shy to take the big shots as seen time and time again and he will continue to do so against the Spurs, if given the tiniest crack of daylight.


#3 How will the Spurs capitalize on Portland’s defensive lapses?

San Antonio has been the paragon of ball movement in terms of volume and quality. All season long, the Spurs have lorded over the assists department (25.2 per game, tops in the league) while also landing in the top-three in assists-to-turnover ratio. When the Spurs have possession, the ball whizzes around the court too fast for defenses to keep up, eventually leading to a wide-open triple or a backdoor layup that opponents have immense difficulty closing out on.

Manu Ginobili will be the catalyst of the team’s offense. Known as the secondary playmaker of the Spurs, he will be tasked to create driving lanes that will draw as many as three Portland defenders rushing over to alter his shot, creating various openings for kick-out opportunities.

While Portland had to contend with Houston’s three-point shooting, a lot of the attempts came off isolation plays that were somewhat contested. On the flipside, Danny Green, Patty Mills, and Kawhi Leonard have mastered the art of extricating themselves from the defense to get the best open looks possible.

#4 Will Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich tighten his rotation?

In the regular season, Popovich craftily kept his main men fresh as Parker, Duncan, and Leonard topped the minutes category at 29 per game. Those three are now seeing a shade under 35 minutes a game through the first round and that trend should continue with teams relying on their best players more and more.

Make no mistake, the Spurs will continue to be a fortified nine-man outfit. Popovich has created a strong bench culture where one player can easily step in for any given starter and submit reasonable outputs on the box score. Portland head coach Terry Stotts does not have the same luxury. While San Antonio leads the league in bench points, Portland is dead last in that regard. It would be unreasonable for Portland to expect its starters to play with the same fire and intensity for 48 minutes while the Spurs can reach deep into their reserves if needed.


#5 Where can the Blazers expose the Spurs?

The small forward position is the chink in the armor for the Spurs, as they lack the necessary personnel to spell Leonard for extended stretches. There were times in the Dallas series where Leonard had trouble closing out on Vince Carter on the three-point line and struggled outmuscling Shawn Marion in the rebounding tussles.

Against the hyper-competitive Nicolas Batum, Leonard will have to conserve his energy as the Spurs don’t have another guy who has the tools to shut Batum down. Batum produced solid numbers against Houston, averaging 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. The frantic pace of this series will favor Batum as he can fly up and down the court with reckless abandon.

#6 Is the Spurs’ postseason experience exaggerated?

The Blazers only have three players who have gone deep into the postseason with other squads: Robin Lopez (Phoenix, conference finals), Mo Williams (Cleveland, conference finals), and Wesley Matthews (Utah, conference semifinals). Other than that, they are spring chickens next to the Spurs who have dealt with the nerve-wracking moments that take its toll mentally.

Portland will receive a baptism of fire in this series. San Antonio, armed with a veteran-laden group toughened by painful postseason shortcomings in the past, should advance handily while facing little resistance.


Prediction: Spurs in 5



- AMD, GMA News