NCR COVID-19 growth rate now at -1% —OCTA

Daily growth rate of the seven-day COVID-19 moving average in the National Capital Region (NCR) has decreased to -1%, OCTA Research said Monday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the growth rate in the region decreased in the past four days from 11%, 5%, 3%, and then to 2%.

Reproduction rate, on the other hand, further decreased to 2.67 from 6.16 11 days ago, according to OCTA. The rate refers to the number of people infected by one case.

“May optimism tayo na baka nga pababa na ‘yung kaso sa Metro Manila at ito’y ayon din sa nakita nating sign sa South Africa na mga dalawang linggo ‘yung pagtaas at nagsimula na bumaba,” David said at the Laging Handa briefing.

(I am optimistic that cases are going down in Metro Manila. This is similar to the signs we saw in South Africa where they had a tw-week increase and then it went down.)

“Pero again, ayaw natin maging complacent tayo, maging kampante, ayaw natin mag-celebrate na ng premature. Masdan natin… siguro next week makikita na natin kung talagang pababa na,” he added.

(But again, we don’t want to be complacent, we don’t want to celebrate prematurely. Maybe next week, we’ll see if cases are really going down.)

David said the positivity rate also decreased from 54% to 15%.

Though the peak may be nearing or is already happening in NCR, Cavite, Rizal, and Bulacan, David said cases nationwide may continue to increase.

“Posible pa magkaroon ng pagtaas. Kasi, although bumababa na sa NCR, nagkakaroon naman ng pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso sa iba’t ibang regions outside NCR Plus,” he said.

(It’s still possible for cases to increase. Because although cases are going down in the NCR, cases in other regions outside NCR Plus are increasing.)

He said there are many areas that have shown an increase.

“Meron sa Region 2, meron sa Region 1, sa Pangasinan, sa La Union, sa Benguet Region, sa Bicol Region, other parts of Central Luzon ay medyo bumibilis pa lang, sa Western Visayas, Central Visayas, at ‘yung sinabi ko nga kanina, Tacloban,” he said.

“Actually, medyo all over the country na siya, even sa Mindanao, may nakikita na tayong simulang pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso kasama doon ‘yung Zamboanga City atsaka Davao del Sur,” he added.

(Actually, it’s somewhat all over the country, even in Mindanao, we saw an increase in the number of cases, including Zamboanga City and Davao del Sur.)

David said the hospitalization hospital rate is still somewhat high in NCR. However, he said hospital utilization has a lag time and is not in sync with cases.

“Sa mga ibang regions outside NCR, siyempre, mababa pa ‘yung hospitalization sa ngayon. Baka nag sisimula pa lang tumaas. In case na magkakaroon ng hospital utilization ito ay minomonitor pa rin namin,” he said.

(There are regions outside NCR that have low hospitalization as of now. Maybe they are still increasing. We are monitoring this.)

According to David, 98% of the new cases are mild while 2% are asymptomatic.

“Syempre ‘yung asymptomatic usually underreported ‘yan pero kahit dagdagan natin karamihan talaga asymptomatic at mild. So kaonti ‘yung severe at critical cases base doon sa huling tingin namin sa datos,” he said.

(Of course, the asymptomatic is underreported but even if we increase it, most of the cases are really asymptomatic and mild. There are a few severe and critical.)

The Philippines on Sunday logged 37,154 new COVID-19 cases.  —KBK, GMA News