NCR at ‘low risk’ for COVID-19; reproduction number slightly increases to 0.71 — OCTA

The National Capital Region (NCR) is at “low risk” classification for COVID-19 after its reproduction number slightly increased to 0.71, the independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Thursday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the NCR’s reproduction number increased from 0.62 to 0.71, which moved the region’s classification to low risk from very low risk.

“Reproduction number increased from 0.62 to 0.71 moving NCR to low risk from very low risk. All other indicators still at very low,” he said.

NCR metrics for April 27, 2022 compared with previous week. Reproduction number increased from 0.62 to 0.71 moving NCR to LOW RISK from VERY LOW RISK. All other indicators still at VERY LOW. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @allangatus @ali_sotto @NewsRmn @News5PH @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews pic.twitter.com/jBhJ1k3jJt

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) April 28, 2022

The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below one indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

David said the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region was still very low at 0.54 for the period April 21 to 27. ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

The NCR’s positivity rate stood at 1.4%, while its healthcare utilization rate is at 22%, and ICU level at 19%.

The Department of Health (DOH) earlier warned that the country may experience another surge in COVID-19 infections by mid-May, with Metro Manila possibly recording as many as almost half a million active cases if the minimum public health standards are ignored.

The Philippines on Wednesday logged 195 new COVID-19 infections, increasing the nationwide tally to 3,685,029.

Meanwhile, the country's active case count dropped to 10,576. This is the lowest active tally this year. — RSJ, GMA News