NCR growth rate lower at 28%, peak feared in 7 days —OCTA

The OCTA Research group said Saturday that a peak in  COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region could happen within seven days, as the numbers continued to rise but with a lower growth rate at 28%.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David reported that the 28% growth rate was lower compared to 41% from the past week.

From July 9 to 15, the NCR recorded an average of 802 cases daily, higher than the 624 average from July 2 to 8.

Thus, the seven-day average translates to an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 5.57 per day per 100K. ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

NCR's reproduction number was at 1.38 as of July 12, 2022, from 1.49 on July 5.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

"With the current rate of decrease, the peak in the NCR could happen within seven days," the OCTA Research said. 

According to David, the Omicron BA.4 or the BA.5 wave in the NCR is expected to last longer than the corresponding upsurge in South Africa.

NCR's healthcare utilization meanwhile remained low at 29.6%, with 1,827 beds occupied.

Metro Manila's ICU occupancy for COVID-19 was also low at 22.8% with 210 beds occupied.

"This current wave is still far from the levels of the Delta surge and the January Omicron surge, and hospitals are not likely to get filled up," David said, as he advised the public to take precautions.

The Department of Health (DOH) reported that the weekly COVID-19 positivity rate in the NCR has climbed to 13% while the national rate stood at 10%. —LBG, GMA News