'The Great Flood' in 2009 foretold by experts in 1970s

What is considered the worst flooding in Metro Manila's recorded history — the deluge left by typhoon Ondoy in 2009 — was foretold by experts in 1970s but the government failed to prepare for it, according to noted urban planner Felino Palafox Jr. And the lessons from 2009 have still not been heeded. In an interview with “News to Go" host Howie Severino on Wednesday, Palafox said the kind of disastrous flooding brought by typhoon Ondoy was already predicted in a World Bank-funded study in 1977. Palafox, who was among those who produced the study, said the study recommended major infrastructure to the government like the Parañaque spillway, which would flush out the excess water in Metro Manila into Laguna Bay and the South China Sea. “Pero ‘di ito ginawa [ng gobyerno]," he said, adding that flood control systems around Metro Manila are already “70 percent obsolete." Up to this time, the country’s flood-control infrastructure still cannot stand the test of disaster, according to Palafox. “Ang imprastruktura natin, ‘di pa rin handa. ‘Yung design criteria, good for 25 years lang, hindi 100 years of flooding history." Palafox is an architect and urban planner of some of the country's largest real estate developments.
The study titled “Metro Manila Transport, Land Use and Development Planning Project" identified the Marikina Valley, the western shores of Laguna de Bay, and the Manila Bay coastal area as among development areas that should prepare for flooding, earthquakes, and possible changes in topography. Typhoon Ondoy, which battered the Philippines last September 2009, dumped more than a month’s worth of rain in just 12 hours, triggering Manila’s worst flooding in living memory. Palafox said, “‘Nung nagka-Ondoy, 4,600 cubic meter per second ang bumagsak from the mountain. [Pero] ‘yung capacity ng Pasig River to flow it out to Manila Bay, 600 cubic meter per second lang." “So saan napunta ‘yung around 4,000 cubic meters per second of flooding? Binaha ang over 80,000 hectares of land sa Metro Manila and some parts of Laguna," he continued. The urban planner noted that 80,000 hectares of land is even larger than Singapore, which is only 71,000 hectares of land. Flood mapping Palafox insisted that “flood mapping" should address the usual incidents of submerged houses and cars and in Metro Manila. Both the local and national government should implement flood mapping to warn residents if they are at risk from flooding from the rivers and seas, according to Palafox. He said, “Dapat bawat munispyo o city, dapat i-imbentaryo na nila kung saan ‘yung areas na liable to flooding." As a “green" architect, Palafox cited Tokyo to have hazard map in every community, further saying, “Dapat street by street, barangay by barangay, town by town, city by city, may hazard map." Apart from implementing the flood mapping scheme, community residents should learn to mitigate the impact of flooding through “adaptive architecture," Palafox said. “Halimbawa, ‘di mo na malipat bahay mo, hayaan mo na ‘yung ground floor mo mabaha. You have to adapt your electrical system, etcetera. Pero kung ‘di mo na kayang lumipat, adaptation nalang," he explained. Palafox also recommends a visit to the parish church and take a measurement of the altar. He said in the old days, churches made it a point to construct the altar well above any flood line to prevent the altar from being flooded. Navotas, a model community According to Palafox, Navotas is a model community for creating ways of adaptive architecture. “Yung 1977 flood map, flooded ‘yung [Navotas]. ‘Nung Ondoy, di sila masyadong na-apektuhan. Bumili daw sila ng bombastic pumps na larger than the specifications of the Department of Public Works and Highways," he explained. Palafox further said that the National Building Code of the Philippines is archaic. “Along our waterfront, they allow you to build only no taller than coconut trees. Eh, ang tsunami mas mataas pa sa coconut trees," he implied. The urban planner cited the ravage brought by the 2006 Indonesia tsunami. “Nadala ng tubig ‘yung mga nasa third floor. ‘Yung mga nasa fourth floor and up, nakasurvive." — VVP, GMA News