Analysts see only slight bump in Roxas ratings after PNoy endorsement

President Benigno Aquino III's endorsement may boost Interior Secretary Mar Roxas' survey ratings, but not by much, as other factors will also come into play, political analysts interviewed by GMA News Online said Friday.

Institute for Political and Electoral Reform executive director Mon Casiple said Aquino's endorsement, which was announced Friday, may cause an "immediate bump" in Roxas' ratings as "reluctant supporters" will heed the President's call.

"Normally, nagkakaroon ng immediate bump na tinatawag kasi 'yung mga nagdadalawang-isip na sumuporta ay sigurado na ngayon. Magkakaroon ng pagtaas ng support for him," he said.

He, however, added: "But will that be enough to lift him from the bottom? Ako, I doubt that."

In his speech endorsing Roxas at Club Filipino earlier in the day, Aquino rallied political allies to help boost Roxas' ratings. Albay Gov. Joey Salceda, provincial chairman of the ruling Liberal Party, believes Roxas' numbers will improve following Aquino's endorsement.

"[Kapag] anointed siya ng presidente magkakaroon iyan ng ratings bounce, nomination's kick," Salceda told radio dzBB. "Magkakaroon ng consolidation of forces sa ground."

In Pulse Asia's presidential preference survey from May 30 to June 5, Roxas placed fourth with only 10 percent preference rating. He was third in the recent Social Weather Stations survey.

Casiple said the true test to Roxas' standing will come in when the other aspiring candidates, aside from Vice President Jejomar Binay, formally declare their intention to run for president.

"Made-define mo lang talaga ang labanan kapag lahat ng lalaban ay nandiyan na... Dapat 'yan sa October, pero siguro within the next two weeks, malalaman na natin, then we'll see paano sila babalanse sa isa't isa," he said.

The filing of certificate of candidacy for the 2016 elections will be in October.

Assurance of support

For his part, Prof. Bobby Tuazon, director for policy studies of the University of the Philippines' Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG), said the endorsement will not have much bearing since it's Roxas himself who needs to prove himself to the voters.

"It has been proven in the past that endorsement by the incumbent President for the next election is not critical," he said in a separate interview, citing instances such as former Presidents Fidel Ramos and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo endorsing unsuccessful presidential aspirants Jose de Venecia and Gilbert Teodoro, respectively.

Being the President's anointed one, however, comes with an "assurance of support by the government," he said, adding that this would come in the form of funds that may be mobilized to help the campaign forward.

'Daang Matuwid'

Tuazon added that Aquino passing the torch of "Daang Matuwid" to Roxas may even backfire.

"Many Filipinos are already wondering where that (Daang Matuwid) is and where it leads," he said. "It may not help if the endorsement is made principally based on the expectation to continue that."

Ultimately, Tuazon pointed out, "Mar Roxas is the candidate, so he should prove to the electorate that he is qualified." (http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/531033/news/nation/emotional-roxas-accepts-pnoy-endorsement)

"He should identify himself that you are an independent-minded candidate, not beholden to the incumbent President," he added.

Disconnect

Both Tuazon and Casiple agreed that Roxas' background as scion of a wealthy family may be a liability to him as this creates a disconnect between him and majority of the voting public.

"Hindi talaga naga-identify sa kaniya 'yung mga botanteng mahirap, 'yun ang bulk ng botante," Casiple said. "Ang tingin sa kaniya [kapag nagtatrabaho na siya], hindi 'yan ang kaniyang normal na personalidad, anak siya mula sa mayamang pamilya."

Meanwhile, Tuazon said Roxas doesn't have "warm rapport," hence his failure to get his message across.

"He cannot communicate well, mostly what he says doesn't have enough impact on people... As a leader, you should be an effective communicator," he said.

Casiple said the situation may be remedied only by Roxas himself.

"Ang makakapagbaligtad lang diyan ay si Mar mismo. 'Yan ang question, kung kaya niyang baguhin 'yung tingin sa kaniya," he said. —KBK, GMA News