VP bets from Bicol to split region's vote – analysts

Having several vice-presidential aspirants from the Bicol Region will likely split the region's vote, several political analysts told GMA News Online on Monday.

University of the Philippines professor Roland Simbulan pointed out that the so-called bloc vote from regions, like Bicol, was a factor given that Filipinos tended to be "very regionalistic."

The Bicol votes, he pointed out, will come not only from those residing in the region, but from "many Bicolanos scattered all over the country."

According to data from the Commission on Elections, the Bicol Region had three million registered voters, the fifth largest in the country. Andthe region recorded a voters' turnout of 81.96 percent during the 2013 midterm elections.

And now, three politicians are counting on this region for support: Sen. Francis Escudero, who hails from Sorsogon; Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo; and Sen. Antonio Trillanes, who has roots in Albay.

Another son of Sorsogon is Senator Gregorio Honasan, who said he was open to the possibility of becoming the United Nationalist Alliance's vice-presidential bet.

‘Cancelling each other out’

"Having these candidates will weaken the regional vote," Simbulan said. "They will be cancelling each other out and dividing the solid vote."

"Vote-rich kasi ang Bicol, kaya maganda sana kung isa lang [ang kandidato]," he added.

However, political management expert Malou Tiquia did not believe that the split-vote was a given.

"The Bicolanos nationwide will support the candidate that gives them honor, pride, and a mathematical chance of winning," Tiquia explained."Whoever edges out the rest would get a plurality of votes."
 
Tiquia added that the split Bicolano vote was mostly detrimental to Escudero's campaign. "Escudero would have been the favored son of Bicol. But with Robredo and Honasan, that hold has been weaken[ed]," she said.

"If we base it on the last survey, Escudero has the edge. But in the long run, with machinery, Robredo can be made to be competitive before the start of the campaign," Tiquia added.

Meanwhile, Simbulan also said that Escudero was the frontrunner among the Bicolanos in the vice presidential race. "Among the four [including Honasan], si Chiz ang may edge based sa mga survey, [but with more candidates], he's leading but that is greatly weakened."

Machinery, appeal for Leni

Both analysts pointed out that the machinery that will be provided by the administration party may boost Robredo's chances.

However, Simbulan believes her ratings "may increase but not significantly," and she will also likely suffer from Bicol having many candidates for the post.

"At the national level, Robredo may not yet have a national constituency," said Tiquia.

"But certainly the rock star quality of the late husband (former Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo) can be a good traction to build on." — DVM, GMA News