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Duterte, Poe lead in SWS' Q1 presidential survey
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte topped the Social Weather Stations-BusinessWorld's (SWS-BW) first quarter 2016 presidential preference poll with a score of 27 percent, while Sen. Grace Poe was a close second with 23 percent.
Vice President Jejomar Binay came in third with 20 percent, followed by former Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas II with 18 percent and Miriam Defensor Santiago at three percent.
In a phone interview with GMA News Online on Monday, SWS director Leo Laroza said Duterte and Poe are statistically tied.
"If you want to apply technical and statistical rules, yes. It's not wrong for people to say they (Duterte and Poe) are statistically tied... The four-point lead is not a significant lead because of the margin of error. There has to be a seven-point lead to show a clear advantage," he said, adding that at some point "may overlap."
"But for us at SWS, we stick to the numbers. It's up to people how to interpret them," he said.
Duterte camp: No celebrations yet
Despite this development, Duterte's camp said it is not yet celebrating.
"While we are elated with the results of the recent surveys of SWS, Pulse Asia and Manila Standard, we still believe the final arbiter of who will be rightfully elected president is the people," said Leoncio Evasco Jr., Duterte's chief campaign strategist, in a statement. "That will be known on May 9."
"It is not over until it is over," added Evasco, the outgoing mayor of Maribojoc town in Bohol.
Meanwhile, Roxas' camp said the latest SWS-BW survey showed that it is becoming clear that more and more Filipinos are being "seduced" by Duterte's "politics of fear."
"To ease our fears, we give him our freedom and rights. He is a threat to the democracy we cherish," said Akbayan Rep. Barry Gutierrez, spokesperson of the Liberal Party-led Daang Matuwid coalition, as he called on "decent Filipinos" to rally behind Roxas.
"Mar is the only candidate with the proven integrity, experience, and competence to realize our dream of having a decent country," he said. "Only Mar has proven to be capable to standing up to Mayor Duterte, to have a solid base of support, and to have an organization that can deliver victory."
Binay's spokesperson said the vice president was grateful with the result of the survey.
Lawyer Rico Quicho said a closer reading of the SWS-BW results shows downward movements for both Duterte and Poe.
"On the part of the Vice President, he is grateful for the result. Despite the negativity and hatred being spread against the Vice President, his steady rise shows the strength of his core supporters," he said in a press statement.
"He (Binay) will work harder - together with our various support groups - as election day nears," he added.
Survey
The First Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 30-April 2 via face-to-face interviews with 1,500 adults nationwide.
A total of 1,377 or 92 percent of the respondents are validated as registered voters.
The poll has a ±3 points sampling margin of error.
The results were first published by BusinessWorld Sunday night.
Among the events that happened before and during the survey was conducted were the protest action of farmers in Kidapawan City, seeking government aid in connection with El Niño which led to violent dispersal and deaths of three people and President Benigno Aquino III’s signing of the law granting value added tax exemptions to persons with disabilities.
During that time, Aquino also lamented alleged bias of print media towards sensational candidates and former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas had a dialogue with members of Makati Business Club.
The SWS said it employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.
Duterte's first quarter score is four points up from his March 8-11 SWS poll rating, but down four points from his 31 percent score in the March 30 Bilang Pilipino Mobile Survey.
The March 8-11 poll was the last time face-to-face interviews were used, while the mobile poll was taken through mobile phones. The mobile poll nevertheless used the same respondents as in the March 8-11 survey.
Poe's first quarter rating meanwhile was six points down from her 29 percent score in the March 8-11 survey, and down 11 points from her 34 percent in the mobile survey.
Binay's latest rating is two points down from his 22 percent in March 8-11, but up three points from the 17 percent in the mobile survey.
Roxas scored 19 percent last March 8-11, and 17 percent in the mobile poll.
Santiago also scored three percent in March 8-11, and one percent in the mobile survey.
Race for vice president
In the race for vice president, Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. led with a score of 26 percent, compared to the 25 percent in the March 8-11 poll and the 26 percent in the March 30 mobile poll.
Sen. Francis Escudero was second in the first quarter poll with 21 percent. He scored 28 percent in the March 8-11 survey, and 31 percent in the mobile poll.
Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo scored 19 percent in the first quarter, 22 percent in the March 8-11 poll, and 25 percent in the March 30 mobile poll.
Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano scored 13 percent in the first quarter, 12 percent in March 8-11, and 13% in the March 30 mobile poll.
Sen. Gregorio B. Honasan scored five percent in the first quarter, four percent last March 8-11, and one percent in the mobile poll.
Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV also scored five percent in the first quarter poll, five percent in the March 8-11 survey, and three percent in the March 30 mobile poll. —with reports from Trisha Macas and Amita Legaspi/DVM/APG/KG/KBK, GMA News
