China will reclaim Scarborough Shoal before end of Duterte’s term — Carpio

Supreme Court (SC) Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said he believes China will try to reclaim Scarborough Shoal before the end of President Rodrigo Duterte's term in 2022.

Carpio said the Chinese will make the attempt in three years' time because the President himself has said he could not stop them from building structures in the shoal locally known as Panatag or Bajo de Masinloc.

"We all know they have a plan and they will do that before the end of the term of President Duterte, and because that is the time they will also sign the Code of Conduct," Carpio said at a seminar for journalists on reporting on maritime issues on Wednesday.

He was referring to an agreement between China and Southeast Asian nations on activities in the South China Sea. The Code of Conduct, Carpio said, is designed to "manage the dispute" but will not settle its merits.

"After they finish the reclamation, their island-building in the Scarborough Shoal, they will say, 'let's sign the Code of Conduct, nobody builds anything anymore,' and that will legitimize what they have created, their artificial islands," the retiring justice said.

He said Duterte's statement that he cannot stop China will mean that the Philippine government will not send a Navy ship or a Coast Guard vessel to the area even if China dredged.

Meanwhile, Carpio reiterated that the memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the terms of reference (TOR) governing a joint exploration deal by Manila and Beijing in the West Philippine Sea may lead to the settlement of the longstanding maritime dispute.

He said the MOU and the TOR spell out a private contract between China National Offshore Corporation (CNOOC) and the Philippine service contractor, Forum Energy, in Reed Bank.

"So it will be a private contract between the two and CNOOC will be coming in under the service contract, so in effect, CNOOC impliedly recognizes we have sovereign rights," he said.

Though China rejected and ignored the 2016 arbitral award that favored the Philippines, Carpio said the deal may usher in what he said is the third phase of the dispute: an implied recognition of the Philippines' rights while getting a part of the income, a softer stance compared to Beijing's initial claim of "indisputable sovereignty."

"They made this agreement with us to offer it to the rest of Southeast Asia, and if they do that, we have found the solution for peace and stability as far as maritime disputes are concerned," Carpio said. — RSJ, GMA News