ADB: Full reopening of face-to-face classes to increase COVID-19 death by 8%

The full resumption of face-to-face classes in the first half of 2021 may cause a jump in COVID-19 deaths, according to a study made by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

In its “Cost-Benefit Analysis of Face-to-Face Closure of Schools to Control COVID-19 in the Philippines,” the Manila-based multilateral lender said it finds “that fully reopening schools at all levels during January–June 2021 affects total COVID-19 deaths by about 8%.”

“When the new normal is maintained, overall mortality from COVID-19 from school opening is about 1,500 lives nationally, or around an 8% increase from the cumulative value simulated if schools were to remain closed,” the ADB said.

“The average age at which these deaths occur is 63, and this figure represents 0.3% of 2019 mortality in the Philippines,” it added.

The ADB said closing face-to-face schooling only for those over 15 “averts 60% of those deaths, and reduces mortality to about 600 lives, while allowing 78% of learners to attend face-to-face classes.”

President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday approved the Department of Education’s proposal to conduct face-to-face classes, the pilot run of which would take place in select areas and that the attendance would be voluntary.

Education Secretary Leonor Briones on Wednesday said that a total of 1,114 schools were recommended for the dry run.

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) backed the pilot test of face-to-face classes, as it can pave the way for further reopening of the economy and allow those in lower age brackets to go out. 

The ADB said, however, that protracted school closure does not appear to be especially effective in controlling COVID-19.

“The pandemic risk to children is limited, as a very small share of diagnosed COVID-19 cases globally and in the Philippines is among those under 20 years of age, and severe medical outcomes, including mortality, are rare among children and adolescents,” it said.

The average age of mortality of COVID-19 deaths diagnosed in the Philippines as of November 26, 2020 is 62 years.

“Less than 10% of diagnosed cases and 2% of COVID-19 deaths have been among those 20 years old and below, compared with 40% of the population falling into this age group. Evidence on effects on transmission to older segments of the population is less clear, but suggests limited effectiveness of school closure,” the ADB said.

The lender added that present value costs of face-to-face closure are estimated to be “very high” at P1.9 trillion for the 2020–2021 school year, equivalent to over 10% of gross doemstic product.

“In a cost–benefit framework that generously values morbidity and mortality, costs are about 70 times higher than COVID-19 control benefits,” the ADB said.

It added that the Philippine government is currently determining whether to delay face-to-face classroom learning until a vaccine for COVID-19 has been administered to a large share of the population, pending results of a pilot of limited reopening in January.

“While there are more than 214 COVID-19 vaccines currently in development, with 10 potential vaccines undergoing phase 3 clinical trials, it cannot be assumed that safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for use and marketing, manufactured, procured, and administered to tens of millions of people before school year 2020–2021 is completed,” it said. —KBK, GMA News