Metro Manila now 'very low risk' for COVID-19, says OCTA

The National Capital Region (NCR) can be classified as "very low risk" for COVID-19, according to independent group OCTA Research on Friday.

A table posted by OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David on Twitter shows marked improvement in numbers in the Nov. 26 to Dec. 2 period this year compared to the same period last year.

"Based on our metrics, the NCR is now classified as VERY LOW RISK. The figure compares the numbers this week vs the same week last year," David said.

According to OCTA, average new COVID-19 cases per day was only at 138 from Nov. 26-Dec. 2, 2021 compared to 416 during the same period last year.

Reproduction number, meanwhile, was 0.36 this year, down from 0.94 in 2020.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

The daily attack rate per 100,000 fell to 0.97 this year from 2.94 last year. The same goes with positive rate — down to 1.2% in 2021 from 3.9% in 2020.

Others also showed dramatic decreases: hospital beds occupied (1,791 in 2021 down from 2,305 in 2020); hospital bed occupancy (21% in 2021 down from 38% in 2020); and ICU bed occupancy (27% in 2021 down from 47% in 2020).

There is however an increase in ICU beds occupied — from 323 in 2020 to 341 this year.

There is also a notable improvement in the average number of tests — 18,875 in 2021 up from 18,189 in 2020.

NCR will remain under Alert Level 2 until December 15, 2021, according to the government's COVID-19 task force.

Under Alert Level 2 — the second lowest in the new alert level system — certain establishments and activities are allowed at 50% capacity indoors for fully vaccinated adults (and minors, even if unvaccinated) and 70% capacity outdoors. — KBK, GMA News