Alert Level 1 possible if new COVID-19 cases remain low by year-end –expert

Infectious disease expert Dr. Rontgene Solante said on Sunday that placing the country in the lowest COVID-19 alert level may be possible in 2022 if the average of new daily infections remained below 500 until the end of the year.

“Ang tingin ko dito ‘pag masyadong mababa pa rin ang kaso, if we’re averaging at less than 500 until the end of December, then meron na sigurong sapat na dahilan or basis na pwede na tayong magbaba to Alert Level 1,” he said during a SuperRadyo dzBB interview.

(I think that if the cases are still low and we’re still averaging below 500 until the end of December, then we might have enough reasons or basis to ease to Alert Level 1.)

The whole country is under an Alert Level 2 for the remainder of 2021.

Under an Alert Level 2 — the second-lowest in the alert level system — certain establishments and activities are allowed at 50% capacity indoors for fully vaccinated adults (and minors, even if unvaccinated) and 70% capacity outdoors.

Solante noted that testing capacity was also usually low in December as people often attended family gatherings especially on Christmas Day and would rather not spend it in isolation.

Due to this, testing results taken over or after the holidays may be seen by early January 2022. If there is an increase in COVID-19 cases, he said that the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) would adjust the new alert level status accordingly.

“Okay lang ‘yun kasi unang una, meron namang naka-install diyan na mga policies natin na ‘pag tumataas, may trend naman na sinusunod tayo. Most of the IATF is also aware na if may tending na tumataas ‘yan, madali lang naman mag-declare ulit [or] i-enhance natin ‘yung alert level,” Solante said.

(That’s okay as we would follow the policies set by the IATF if there’s an increasing trend in COVID-19 cases. If so, we could easily declare or enhance the alert level.)

He thus encouraged people to undergo RT-PCR testing after attending social gatherings to not put the vulnerable population at risk, especially with the lingering threat of the Omicron COVID-19 variant.

He also stressed that several local government units offered free COVID-19 testing and people should make use of this to protect themselves.

“‘Yung nga gatherings, pinayagan natin ‘yan pero (we allowed that but) to the extent that we have to be careful and we have to obey protocols at all times,” he said.

While medical experts have not seen a rise in COVID-19 infections over the holidays, Solante noted that there is a chance that cases may increase by the end of January 2022.

“Baka by January makikita na natin—third or fourth week, baka papalo ang mga kaso natin, and hopefully sana dahil marami nang nabakunahan, they will get be marked moderate at hindi talaga ‘yung mga severe na cases,” he said.

(Maybe by the third or fourth week of January, the cases may increase. Since many have been vaccinated so far, I hope they will only be moderate cases and not severe.)

He thus added that even if the country eases to Alert Level 1 or the whole alert level system diminishes, the public should still practice the minimum public health standards, such as wearing face masks and avoiding crowds, on top of getting the primary vaccine doses and booster shot. — DVM, GMA News