COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR drops to 1.2 —OCTA

The COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila dipped to 1.20 as of January 19 from 2.95 a week ago while the region remains classified as "very high risk," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said Sunday. 

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

On Twitter, David also noted that the one-week growth rate in the metropolis dropped to -42%, which he described as "a clear downward trajectory" in new COVID-19 cases.

"NCR reproduction number down to 1.20. New cases are tracking below Jan 20 projections. NCR remains at very high risk. Residents are advised to practice caution and observe health protocols," David wrote.

NCR reproduction number down to 1.20. New cases are tracking below Jan 20 projections. NCR remains at very high risk. Residents are advised to practice caution and observe health protocols. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn @ali_sotto @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews pic.twitter.com/LNUxkvLCg5

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 22, 2022

Meanwhile, the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the National Capital Region went down to 72, which indicates "very high level."

"Residents of NCR are advised to continue to practice extreme caution and strictly comply with health protocols in public areas," David also said.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

In another tweet, David also pointed out that provinces outside Metro Manila are at very high risk, citing the high ADAR in these areas.

Very high risk provinces. NCR, Rizal and Bulacan had negative growth rates but are still very high risk. Cases may be peaking in Cavite and Batangas. Cases are still increasing in the other provinces on the list. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @dzrhnews @ali_sotto @News5PH @NewsRmn pic.twitter.com/MyluVACLDG

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 22, 2022

Benguet recorded 703 new cases with a one-week growth rate of 120% while its ADAR was at 94.26.

Cavite registered 2,799 fresh infections with 1% one-week growth rate and 58.48 ADAR.

In Laguna, new infections were at 1,649, one-week growth rate was at 16% while ADAR was at 58.41.

Batangas documented 769 new cases with 3% one week growth rate and 26.68 ADAR.

David said cases may be peaking in Cavite and Batangas.

He also said there are negative growth rates in Rizal and Bulacan but are still very high risk.

Rizal has a -28% one-week growth rate but its ADAR was at 43.91.

Further, Bulacan has a -38% one-week growth rate but its ADAR was at 29.80.

'New highs'

In another tweet, David said Cebu City, Iloilo City and Lapu Lapu City recorded "new highs" on January 22.

He also said Iloilo City was at severe outbreak classification.

Based on the data, Cebu City recorded 56.16 ADAR while  reproduction number was at 3.73.

Iloilo City reported 82.38 ADAR while reproduction number was at 3.51.

Also, Lapu Lapu City had ADAR  of 49.18 while reproduction number was at 2.80.

Cebu City, Iloilo City and Lapu Lapu had new highs in cases reported by DOH on Jan 22. This moved Iloilo City to severe outbreak classification (with Baguio). NCR downgraded from severe outbreak to very high risk. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @ali_sotto @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn pic.twitter.com/UL80WpG4R0

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 23, 2022

The Philippines logged 30,552 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, bringing the nationwide tally to 3,387,524.

Active infections stood at 280,619. Total recoveries numbered 3,053,499 while the death toll climbed to 53,406. —KG, GMA News