OCTA fellow says volunteers not enough to propel Leni win

OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye on Monday said the volunteer movement that powered Vice President Leni Robredo's election campaign may be groundbreaking, but not enough guarantee for a win. 

In an interview with GMA News, Rye noted that the pre-election surveys captured the momentum going for Robredo in the presidential race, especially in her well-attended rallies.

However, he clarified that it was not enough for Robredo to keep up with Marcos.

“It was captured (the momentum) lalo noong March. Talagang ‘yun ang pinakamalapit as far as the race is concerned between BBM and VP Leni,” he said.

“While the lead was significant, it narrowed a bit that month. And of course, it became wide again in the month of April,” he added.

Rye pointed out that the regions where Marcos and running mate Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte were popular, provided the votes for the tandem.

“You have to understand they were very strong in the Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Calabarzon area, and the National Capital Region. They were also very strong in Mindanao and parts of the Visayas,” he explained.

“So, these are two strong political families with established bailiwicks in the North and the South. And these bailiwicks generated the votes that you are seeing today,” he added.

Rye stressed that factors such as resources, patronage, and familial networks of the Marcos and Duterte helped in their voting turnout.

He added, “It also helped that the President (Rodrigo Duterte) is wildly popular, and his approval rating continues to be high. You cannot understand this win, without the important role of this current administration provided as far as the context for this win.”

Reliable

The OCTA fellow said partial, unofficial results showing Marcos leading proved that pre-election surveys were reliable.

“Sa tingin ko based on the partial unofficial results na nakikita natin, tama ‘yung mga surveys na lumabas. They have turned up reliable in our current elections,” he said.

“Mukhang tama ang estimate ng survey companies, including OCTA Research,” he added.

He said  the pre-election surveys have been consistent since December 2021.

“We’re not sure of the turnout but BBM, the tandem, is going to get around more than 50% of the vote. These numbers are still going to change if our surveys are correct. It would be something between 56% to 58% to the vote. And VP Leni would get something between 25% to 28% of the vote,” he said.

Rye said data from OCTA Research showed that Marcos’ votes came from different age groups.

“More than 50% ang nakuha niya in all of the age groups…most especially among the youths. Lalo in the last three surveys namin – February, March, and April – dominant po siya across age groups and he has sustained it until today.

“If the opposition united around, let’s say VP Leni. There could be a possibility to narrow that gap. But yun nga, pinag-aralan natin ang mga explanations bakit ganito yung mga numero. It’s a lot of factors including the disunity of the opposition and towards the end nakita natin ang impact niyan nag-consolidate na ang boto kay Marcos,” he said.—LDF, GMA News