NCR’s COVID-19 growth rate down to -1% —OCTA

The one-week growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased to -1% on Sunday, August 14, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Monday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that NCR’s growth rate was at 9% as of August 7.

He pointed out that this development may mean that the COVID-19 infections in NCR are beginning to go downward.

“This could be the start of a downward trend, although the one week growth rate will have to decrease even further (e.g. -50%) to see significant decreases in daily new cases in the NCR,” David said.

On Sunday, David said that NCR’s COVID-19 cases may have already peaked with its weekly positivity rate dropping to 16.4% on Friday, August 12, from 17.5% on August 6.

He said such decline was the first occurrence in the current COVID-19 wave.

As of Saturday, August 13, NCR’s positivity rate was already at 16.2% from the 17.4% recorded on August 6. Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

In the same tweet on Monday, David said that NCR’s reproduction number — or the number of people infected by one case — also went down to 1.15 on August 11, from 1.21 on August 4.

The average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR also decreased slightly to 8.70 per 100,000 population on Saturday from 8.77 on August 7.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

NCR’s healthcare utilization, however, had an uptick on August 13 at 37% from 36% on August 8. Its intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy, on the other hand, remained at 31% over the same period.

With this, David said the NCR is still at moderate risk for COVID-19.

The Philippines on Sunday recorded 4,182 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the active caseload to 40,016—the third straight day with more than 40,000 active cases.  —KBK, GMA News