DOE: El Niño not a major problem this year, but 4 yellow alerts expected

The Department of Energy (DOE) said Friday that the onset of the El Niño phenomenon will not pose a serious problem for the country’s power situation for the rest of the year.

At the televised public briefing, Energy Undersecretary Rowena Guevarra said that based on the DOE’s simulations, the capacities of major hydroelectric power plants could be slashed by 50% in July to as much as 75% come December due to El Niño.

Last week, state weather weather bureau PAGASA declared the start of the El Niño phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific and its effects are now expected in the Philippines. 

The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below normal rainfall.

PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction section chief Annalisa Solis earlier said that they declared the presence of El Niño in the Tropical Pacific after the Oceanic Niño Index reached 0.5°C during April-May-June.

‘Not a major problem’

Meanwhile at the public briefing, Guevarra said the projected power consumption demand is lower “by about 300-500 megawatts (MW).”

“So dahil doon hindi namin nakikita na magiging major problem for this year itong ating mga hydroelectric power [plants],” she said.

(So because of that, we do not see that our hydroelectric power plants will be a major problem for this year.)

The DOE, nevertheless, said that based on the power outlook “dahil sa El Niño, posible tayong magkaroon ng apat na yellow alerts (because of El Niño, there could be a possibility of four yellow alerts).”

A yellow alert indicates that the grid has thin reserves or have fallen below a comfortable level, but does not necessarily lead to power outages.

“Meron tatlong posibleng yellow alerts sa August. At ngayon, sa July, posibleng may yellow alert sa third week of July,” Guevarra said.

(There are three possible yellow alerts in August. And now, in July, a yellow alert is possible to occur in the third week of July.)

The DOE official said a yellow alert could trigger the tapping of more expensive supply from diesel-fired plants to compensate for the thinning reserves. — RSJ, GMA Integrated News