‘The Big One’ could have death toll of 50,000 —Phivolcs

A death toll of more than 50,000, and at least 12% of residential buildings heavily damaged: these are among the sobering statistics experts forecast should "The Big One"—a 7.2 magnitude earthquake—hit the National Capital Region and nearby areas.

While earthquakes are impossible to predict, based on historical records, the West Valley Fault along the eastern side of Metro Manila is due for a major quake "within our generation or the next generation."

In Mav Gonzales' report on GMA’s “24 Oras Weekend” on Sunday, PHIVOLCS director Dr. Teresito Bacolcol said the agency is estimating a death toll of around 51,500 from the Big One: 33,500 from the quake itself, and around 18,000 additional deaths from fires, along with 100,000 injured.

“The Big One in NCR, the expected ground shaking in Metro Manila is intensity 8, and also, we expect residential buildings, around 12% to 13% would sustain heavy damage,” he said.

“[The] 10- to 30-storey buildings around 11% heavy damage, and then 30- to 60-storey buildings, 2%,” he added.

Bacolcol noted, however, that there are earthquake generators that could cause temblors of even greater magnitude, such as in Gabaldon, Nueva Ecija, which could have a magnitude 7.9 earthquake; the Philippine Trench which could affect Eastern Samar and cause eight- to nine-meter tsunami waves; and the Manila Trench which would generate a magnitude 8.2 earthquake.

The Philippines was previously hit by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in 1976, which primarily affected Cotabato, leaving 8,000 dead after bringing tsunami waves. It happened past midnight, when residents were most likely asleep and could not evacuate.

“If you can feel a shaking na hindi ka na makatayo [that keeps you from standing up], and then if you notice [a] sudden drop of sea level and [a] roaring sound or dumadagundong na boses [thundering sound] coming from the sea, then you have to, once the shaking stops, then you have to evacuate immediately to a higher place kasi pwedeng magka-tsunami [because there may be a tsunami],” Bacolcol added. — Jon Viktor D. Cabuenas/BM, GMA Integrated News