PH warns: Any China attempt to construct in Scarborough Shoal a 'red line'

Any attempt by China to undertake construction to turn Scarborough Shoal into an island will cross a "red line" by the Philippines that would spark regional instability, a Philippine official told an online forum Tuesday.

Jonathan Malaya, Assistant Director General of the National Security Council (NSC), said Philippine authorities have detected a doubling of the presence and activities of the Chinese coast guard and suspected militia vessels at the shoal in recent years, sparking speculations about Beijing's objectives in the disputed shoal.

Scarborough Shoal, also known as Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal, lies 124 nautical miles from the northwestern Philippine province of Masinloc, Zambales. On the other hand, it is 472 nautical miles from China's nearest land mass of Hainan province.

Malaya cited the policy laid out by President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. that the Philippines would not yield an inch of territory to China in the West Philippine Sea as the basis of the country's red line, a term that connotes what the government would not allow by any means.

"What keeps us awake at night is the prospect of turning a shoal into an artificial island. That is going to be alarming. That is the red line for the Philippines," Malaya said at the Stratbase Forum.

"The legal status of the shoal as part of Philippine territory is clear. Therefore, that is the red line for the Philippines," he said.

In April 2012, Manila and Beijing were locked in a dangerous standoff at shoal when Chinese vessels prevented Philippine authorities from arresting Chinese fishermen allegedly poaching in the area. Philippine government officials insisted the shoal is well within its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone as provided by a United Nations treaty.

Occupied features

Since then, China has beefed up its presence in the area and barred Philippine authorities and Filipino fishermen access.

"I hope China will continue to adhere to the declaration of no new occupation of unoccupied features. It is our hope that they will not go that far because reading what the President has said, that would be a red line for the Philippines," Malaya said.   

GMA News Online has reached out to the Chinese Embassy in Manila regarding Malaya's statements but it has yet to respond as of posting time.

China insists ownership of almost 90% of the South China Sea, including areas that overlap with the Philippines' and other Asian nations' territorial waters.

Parts of the South China Sea that fall within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and extended continental shelf were renamed West Philippine Sea by Manila to stress its claim.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, China and Taiwan all have overlapping claims over the waters—a major trade route teeming with rich marine life and said to be harboring vast oil and mineral deposits.

China activities doubled

Malaya's warning comes amid reports from the Sealight initiative, a group led by maritime defense analyst Ray Powell, which showed that Chinese activities in Scarborough Shoal have doubled in the past year compared to previous years.

Satellite images presented by Sealight indicated a growing number of Chinese vessels in the area, prompting additional deployments of Philippine vessels.

“As you can see, two or three years ago three or four ships was about normal and now we are at a point where 10 or 11 and 12 ships that’s really normal, but that is a big increase over two years ago,” Powell said.

“So China has really doubled down on its strategy to take control of Scarborough Shoal…to sort of enforce its claim to own or to be sovereign over the shoal.”

The NSC confirmed the increase in Chinese presence despite ongoing maritime patrols by Philippine forces.

The images also showed extensive damage to giant clams in the area, allegedly caused by Chinese ships.

Despite efforts by the Philippines to assert its rights over shoal, Powell said it is “overwhelmed by the sheer volume of Chinese ships.”

National Security Adviser Eduardo Año assured that the Philippine government would not allow China's objectives for the shoal to materialize.

"As we discussed today, the developments in Bajo de Masinloc align with China's near-term objectives and long-term goals," Año said.

Año said the Philippines' actions are aimed not only at protecting Scarborough Shoal, but at defending national sovereignty across all territorial waters.

"Let me emphasize that addressing challenges in the South China Sea is not only about our presence in Bajo de Masinloc—it is about a greater cause and a stronger commitment to opposing threats to our rights and ensuring that our sovereignty remains intact and inviolable."

Año added that the Philippines will respond through diplomatic and peaceful means, advocating for stability in the region.

"After all, our resonant call for peace and the rule of law is not just for the Philippines alone, but for a greater community of nations," he said. 

Although the shoal is claimed by the Philippines, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands ruled in 2016 that no country can claim sovereign rights over Scarborough, saying it is a traditional fishing ground for Filipino, Vietnamese, and Chinese fishermen.

China refused to recognize the ruling, saying the shoal is within its territory.

The Department of Foreign Affairs said the arbitral award won by the Philippines, which invalidated China’s massive claim over the South China Sea, affirms Scarborough Shoal “as a traditional fishing ground of Filipinos" and vowed to “take all appropriate measures to protect our country’s sovereignty and the livelihood of our fisherfolk.”

Analyst Jennifer Parker, retired commander at the Royal Australian Navy and now an expert associate at the Australian National University, stressed that deterrence is the key to avert a possible Chinese buildup in the Scarborough Shoal.

Multilateral defense activities, such as joint sails and exercises, and statements from like-minded states are vital, but an actual demonstration of support “in greater numbers and greater force” is needed.

“All of this is kind of playing around the edges, unless you can get some sort of demonstrational statement from the US themselves, which I think in this era in 2025, it’s probably going to be the only likely significant deterrent towards China,” Parker said.  

Jay Batongbacal, director, Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines raised concerns on China’s illegal and unregulated fishing and harvesting of giant claims, causing damage to the shoal’s ecosystem, and the possibility that clandestine Chinese “activities” there could be a prelude to permanent construction.

Sealight presented satellite images on the extent of damage to the shoal, which it blamed on China’s years of “propeller-dragging” to harvest large numbers of giant clams although such activities stopped in 2019.

“It has been devastated,” Batongbacal said, warning that China may be laying the groundwork for future reclamation. “They’re turning the shoal into a rubble basically.”

Batongbacal expressed alarm on accounts of Filipino fishermen on “other activities” usually conducted at night by Chinese vessels at the shoal.

“If we turn our attention to see what’s going on at night then maybe we’ll have a little bit more insight,” he said, fearing it could be another military installation similar to what China did in Fiery Cross, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef – features located within the West Philippines Sea.

“Definitely if they succeed in their plans and say, in the future, convert Scarborough Shoal into another military base that would not only cement their illegal control but it would have serious implications for the region and the world,” Batongbacal said.— VDV/AOL, GMA Integrated News