OCTA Research: Surveys aren't crystal balls

Following the surprising partial results of the 2025 Philippine elections, public opinion pollster OCTA Research Group stressed Tuesday that surveys have a margin of error and do not predict actual election outcomes.

"Surveys are not a crystal ball. They are not a guarantee and they are really just a snapshot of that particular time," OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye said in an interview.

Meanwhile, Social Weather Stations (SWS) chair emeritus Dr. Mahar Mangahas said the results show that "anything can change."

"Ang attitude ko, we just learn as we go along. So now, we know how much things can change at the last minute. Ganoon lang," he said when asked about the votes received by former Senator Bam Aquino.

(My attitude is, we just learn as we go along. So now, we know how much things can change at the last minute. That's just how it is.)

As of Tuesday noon, GMA Network's partial and unofficial results continued to show former senator Bam Aquino in second place with 16.8 million votes.

Though he never ranked among the top three, Aquino made the top 12 of OCTA's senatorial surveys.

According to Rye, Aquino received the most votes in Balance Luzon and the National Capital Region.

Trending with millennials, Gen Zs

Another surprising frontrunner was former senator Francis Pangilinan with 12.3 million votes, who also did not rank among the top five in surveys.

"This is probably, ano ito eh, produkto ito ng kilusan. Si Bam Aquino hindi lang kandidato, mukhang may kilusan at buhay pa 'yung kilusan na 'yun. And last minute, nag-organize siya," he said.

(This is probably—this is a product of a movement. Bam Aquino is not just a candidate; it seems that there's a movement behind him, and that movement is still alive. And at the last minute, he organized it.)

"Kailangan natin nang konti pang datos para masabi. Kasi 'yun ay interpretasyon ko lang. Pero I'm sure when we look at the data… I mean he was trending among millennials, Gen Zs… three weeks before the elections, he peaked. And that movement gave the votes, and not just for him, for Kiko," he added.

(We still need a bit more data to be certain. That's just my interpretation. But I'm sure that when we look at the data… I mean, he was trending among millennials, Gen Zs… three weeks before the elections, he peaked. And that movement delivered the votes, not just for him, but also for Kiko.)

Rye said that the "opposition really won" following the midterm polls.

"Opposition Duterte, opposition pink. And that movement, the pink movement is alive. Obviously, they're silent, but they organized very well," he said.

More surveys, more questions

Meanwhile, he said that the results show that Filipino voters are not "bobotante."

Rye also said survey firms could have gotten the predictions right if there were more surveys conducted.

For his part, Mangahas said the SWS would add more questions in its surveys.

"Ako iniisip ko lang, anong mga bagong questions ang dapat gawin sa susunod na survey para i-clarify ang lahat ng ito. Kagaya ng, kailan ka ba nag-decide? That will be one of the questions that I will do," he said.

(What I'm thinking about now is what new questions should be included in the next survey to clarify all of this. For example, when did you make your decision? That will be one of the questions I will include.)

'Defied' pre-election surveys

In a statement, Stratbase said the performance of Aquino and Pangilinan is a reflection of the public's demand for accountability and reform-oriented leadership.

"Their impressive return to the political stage defied early pre-election surveys, and their resurgence carries a powerful message from the Filipino people—a renewed demand for accountability, human rights, and reform-oriented leadership," Stratbase President Dindo Manhit said.

He said their "independence" from the Marcos and Duterte factions also made them appealing to the public.

"For many Filipinos, their votes for Aquino and Pangilinan served as a 'revenge vote' against political toxicity, corruption, and empty promises," he said.

Meanwhile, he said other candidates who ranked highest such as former Senate President Tito Sotto, former Senator Panfilo Lacson, and ACT-CIS Party-list Representative Erwin Tulfo are also known for their strong anti-corruption stances. — VDV, GMA Integrated News

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