How Kiko, Bam rose to ‘Magic 12’ in Eleksyon 2025

The results of the senatorial race in this year’s midterm elections proved that survey results do not necessarily manifest in the actual election. 

According to Ivan Mayrina’s report in “24 Oras” on Tuesday, survey firms were surprised that some of the top 12 candidates in the partial and unofficial tally of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) either made it or did not make the cut. 

Among the surprises was former senator Bam Aquino, who is currently in second place despite rarely making it into the “Magic 12” in the recent surveys conducted by the Social Weather Stations, Pulse Asia, and OCTA Research. 

Aquino’s ally reelectionist Francis Pangilinan also surprised everyone after ranking fifth although he rarely appears in the voters’ preferences in the senatorial surveys. 

But experts suggest that respondents could have been undecided when the survey was conducted or they had a change of heart come election day. 

“We have data to show that 20% of our voting population will only decide on the day of election, and another 20%, close to 20% will decide on the week before elections,” said Ranjit Rye of OCTA Research. 

Meanwhile, there were names who ranked high in surveys but did not make it into the winning circle. 

Broadcaster Ben Tulfo, Senator Bong Revilla, and Makati City Mayor Abby Binay were at the top five of surveys during the early days of the campaign until they crashed out of the “Magic 12” in the actual polls. 

Tulfo is at 13th spot, followed by Revilla at 14th, and Binay at 15th. 

“May margin of error lagi ang survey. Hindi siya perpekto, hindi siya crystal ball. Doon sa margin of error, makikita niyo dikit dikit talaga eh,” said Rye. 

(Surveys always have a margin of error. They’re not perfect and they’re not a crystal ball. Based on the margin of error, you can see that the ratings are just close to each other.) 

Survey firms said that there were a lot of things that happened since they conducted the surveys, hence, affecting the results of the actual elections. 

For instance, SAGIP Party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, who is now at 6th spot, also had a huge boost in the senatorial race after gaining support from the Dutertes and the Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) which he is a member of. 

Survey firms noted that endorsement from the INC also happened after the surveys were conducted. 

“From experience, 'yung Iglesia Ni Cristo, talagang solid yun, by solid I mean 80%. My feeling has always been, but kakaunti lang sila, mga 5% lang ang mga Iglesia Ni Cristo voters,” said Mahar Mangahas of SWS. “So I haven't seen yet that that could change the standings so much. But let us see, hindi pwedeng Iglesia lang.” 

(From experience, Iglesia Ni Cristo’s support is solid, like 80%. That’s how I feel about it, but there are only a few Iglesia Ni Cristo voters with only 5% of them. So I haven’t seen yet that it could change the standings so much. But let us see, because there are other factors as well.) 

Just days before the election, several candidates boosted their chances with endorsements from noted personalities.

Vice President Sara Duterte endorsed Camille Villar and Senator Imee Marcos, and adopted them into the PDP-Laban’s slate. 

Meanwhile, Pangilinan improved his chances after securing backing from local politicians in Cebu and Cavite - which are vote-rich provinces. —Vince Angelo Ferreras/RF, GMA Integrated News

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