How senatorial elections might affect Sara Duterte impeachment trial

The results of the senatorial elections may affect the trial of Vice President Sara Duterte when the senators convene as an impeachment court.

According to Maki Pulido's report on "24 Oras," a conviction in the 24-seat chamber needs 16 votes, or those of two-thirds of the senator-judges.

To be acquitted, the Vice President needs nine.

For Prof. Aries Arugay, chairman of the Department of Political Science in UP Diliman, there are already seven senators in the 20th Congress who are expected to vote to acquit Sara Duterte.

Among them are Senators Christopher "Bong" Go and Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa, and SAGIP party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, who are No. 1, No. 3, and No. 6 in the senatorial race according to the partial and unofficial tally from the Comelec media server.

Arugay also believes House Deputy Speaker Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar and Sen. Imee Marcos are also for Sara Duterte after their candidacies were endorsed by the Vice President weeks before Eleksyon 2025.

Both Camille Villar and Imee Marcos were also in the administration senatorial ticket for which President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. campaigned.

They will join Duterte allies Senators Robin Padilla and Alan Peter Cayetano who were elected in 2022 and whose terms run until 2028.

Padilla is a stalwart of the PDP Laban party of the Vice President's father, former President Rodrigo Duterte. Alan Cayetano, on the other hand, was the elder Duterte's running mate in the 2016 presidential elections.

“Pito na 'yon. Kung pag-uusapan natin ang impeachment, ang magic number kay Sara ay siyam for acquittal,” said Arugay. 

(So there’s already seven of them. If we are talking about the impeachment, the magic number for Sara’s acquittal is nine.)

Returning senators Vicente "Tito" Sotto III, and Panfilo "Ping" Lacson, reelectionists Pia Cayetano, and Lito Lapid, and ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo, who are all in the Magic 12 based on the latest partial and unofficial results, all ran under the Marcos administration slate.

While Marcos' allies in the House of Representatives voted to impeach Sara Duterte, Marcos and Malacañang have denied having a hand in the impeachment.

It will be difficult to determine how the senators who ran in 2022 under the UniTeam coalition of the President and the Vice President will vote.

Arugay said alliances don't hold much weight under the country's political system.

He said they will think more about what they will gain and how it would affect them should they run again in 2028.

Arugay said the evidence that will be presented during the trial will be crucial.

"Kasi 'yung proseso ng trial, puwedeng magkaroon ng impact. Kasi itong mga senador na 'to di lang naman nila iisipin 'yung kanino ba ako may utang loob? Sino ba tumulong sa'kin na manalo? It's more like, 'baka 'pag bumoto ako ng acquittal, baka ako naman balikan sa susunod na eleksyon'," Arugay said.

(The trial has the potential to have an impact. These senators will not just think about debt of gratitude and who helped me win. It's more like if I vote for acquittal, it might have consequences in the next elections.)

Senate President Francis Escudero has urged senators to be impartial in the trial, which is expected to start on July 30. –Vince Angelo Ferreras/NB, GMA Integrated News

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