Pulse Asia says Bam, Kiko were in winners’ circle in poll just before Eleksyon 2025

The 2025 election victories of Senators Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan were no surprise, Pulse Asia said Monday, as its survey conducted a few days before the May 12 midterm elections ranked them in 5th and 11th place at best, respectively. 

In the poll—which Pulse Asia conducted from May 6 to 9 but only released the results today due to the time required to encode and process the data—showed that Aquino and Pangilinan polled at 32.8% and 25.1%, respectively, and that they were two of the 19 bets who were statistically possible to make the Top 12 winners’ circle.

With a margin of error at ±3%, Aquino and Pangilinan’s best polling scores for the May 6 to 9 Pulse Asia poll were at 35.8% and 28.1%, respectively. These figures ultimately approximated the official tally results: Aquino ranked second by garnering 37.5% of the votes, while Pangilinan placed fifth with 27.5% of the votes.

“For the remaining six winners (Aquino, Ronald dela Rosa, Pangilinan, Rodante Marcoleta, Camille Villar, and Imee Marcos), the voting preferences in the May survey results and the actual vote shares were not statistically different. This list notably includes candidates whose victories were  'unexpected' at least to some sections of the public. From the perspective of the last survey in  May, however, the election of these six should not have been a surprise,” Pulse Asia said.

“When comparing the final election results to the May survey, however, only Bam Aquino (+4.8 percentage points) and Kiko Pangilinan (+2.4 percentage points) sustained momentum. They registered a further increase in their final vote shares relative to the May survey,” Pulse Asia added.

At the time of the May 6 to 9 Pulse Asia poll, voters selected an average of eight candidates for the Senate.

The  mean number of candidates across regions varied but all showed undervoting as follows:

• nine in the National Capital Region
• seven in Balance of Luzon
• nine in Visayas and
• 10 in Mindanao 

Further, the same Pulse Asia poll showed that only Aquino, Pangilinan and incumbent Sagip party-list Representative Marcoleta scored gains in terms of percentage points in nine or more regions on May 12 or the election day compared with their scores on the May 6 to 9 Pulse Asia survey.

Aquino gained in the following 11 regions:

• +14 in NCR
• +4 in Cordillera Administrative Region
• +7 percentage points in Region 1
• +8 in Region 3
• +20 in Region 4A
• +6 in Region 4B
• +7 in Region 7
• +9 in Region 9
• +8 in Region 10
• +1 in Region 13 and
• +11 in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM)

Pangilinan, for his part, scored the following:

• +5 in NCR
• +8 in Region 4A
• +7 in Region 7
• +2 in Region 8
• +9 in Negros Island Region
• +2 in Region 9
• +2 in Region 10
• +5 in Region 11 and
• +7 in BARMM

Marcoleta, on the other hand, posted the following gains:

• +10 in NCR
• +5 in Region 1
• +13 in Region 2
• +5 in Region 4A
• +13 in Region 4B
• +11 in Region 5
• +7 in Region 6
• +8 in Region 9
• +1 in Region 12

“From these trends, it appears that the political machinery of both the Marcos administration and the Duterte opposition struggled to sustain or expand support for their respective candidates. For the Marcos camp, notable drops in vote shares in Regions 1, 3, 4A, and 8 point to a failure to mobilize voter support—even in areas traditionally viewed as strongholds (such as Regions 1 and 8) or considered ripe for strategic consolidation,” Pulse Asia said.

“Similarly, the Duterte-aligned opposition failed to retain its previously dominant backing across Mindanao, leading to a diminished  performance in a region once firmly in its corner,” Pulse Asia added.

Last-minute changes

When asked when they decided on whom to vote for, the respondents of the May 6 to 9 Pulse Asia poll were almost split between those who decided a week before election day at 26% and  those who decided the day before election day at 25%.

On the other hand, about 21% said they made their decision long before election day, while 16% decided two weeks before, and 11% decided on election day itself.

“These figures suggest that over one-third of voters—those who planned to decide the day  before (25%) or on election day itself (11%)—were potentially open to last-minute shifts in candidate support.

“A comparison of the vote shares from the May 2025 Pulso ng Bayan survey, the April 2025  survey, and the actual election results reveals that voter preferences for some candidates  shifted markedly over time,” Pulse Asia said.

Pulse Asia said such last-minute changes can be seen in the increased share of total votes for mostly independents and those affiliated with progressive groups in the official tally compared with their their pre-election survey poll numbers.

Candidates who most outdid their pre-poll survey numbers in the final tally include:

• former Commission on Audit Commissioner Heidi Mendoza
• labor leader and lawyer Luke Espiritu
• former Gabriela representative Liza Maza
• Gabriela party-list Representative Arlene Brosas
• former Bayan Muna party-list representative Teddy Casiño
• peasant leader Danilo Ramos
• fisherfolk leader Ronnel Arambulo
• labor leader and lawyer Sonny Matula
• labor leader Leody de Guzman, Leody
• ACT Teachers party-list Representative France Castro
• lawyer/educator Angelo de Alban
• Dr. Marites Mata
• Ramon Magsaysay awardee Roberto Ballon
• former executive secretary Vic Rodriguez and
• 1-Rider party-list Representative and retired police officer Bonifacio Bosita

Given such results, Pulse Asia said that voters ultimately exercise their own judgment in voting for their bets, regardless of pre-election survey results.

“When it comes to voting behavior, these shifts in pre-election preferences challenge the  common criticism that surveys have a conditioning effect on voters. In reality, the changes  reflect that citizens exercise their own agency,” it said.

“Voting decisions are shaped by individuals' personal judgments about which candidates are most likely to  pursue policies that align with their hopes and aspirations, as well as the political circumstances  that obtained in the months, and even days, prior to the elections. In short, the more reasonable and straightforward assertion is that opinions determine survey results, not the  other way around,” it added.

The May 6 to 9 Pulse Asia poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipinos who were registered voters and likely to vote. — BM, GMA Integrated News

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