Too early to say when current US-Israel-Iran conflict will ease, say analysts

Analysts say it is still too early to conclude that the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is nearing its end, urging a “wait and see” approach as hostilities continue across parts of the Middle East.

International security and foreign relations expert Renato de Castro of De La Salle University said factors could either shorten or prolong the fighting.

“We can see factors that may speed up the end of the war, but there are also factors that may prolong it. So my analysis here is: let’s wait and see if it will really end soon,” De Castro said.

The assessment comes as airstrikes linked to the US and Israel against targets in Iran continue. At the same time, Tehran has responded with drone and missile attacks toward Israel and other parts of the region, raising fears of broader escalation.

Analysts say the situation remains fluid, particularly as Iran continues to resist pressure from Washington and its allies. Reports have also pointed to shifts in Iran’s leadership structure following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly appointed the new head of the country’s leadership.

Meanwhile, the conflict has raised global concerns about energy security, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important routes for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments from the Middle East.

According to Francis Esteban, faculty at Far Eastern University's Department of International Studies, an early end to the conflict would benefit countries like the Philippines by stabilizing global oil prices and allowing safer repatriation of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in affected areas.

“Hopefully the conflict ends soon so that repatriation can proceed and the safety of our OFWs can be ensured,” Esteban said, adding that rising oil and gas prices linked to the conflict could have wider economic consequences.

Despite the possibility of de-escalation, analysts warn governments should remain prepared for a prolonged crisis.

Philippine authorities earlier said contingency measures are already being studied. The Department of Energy is exploring ways to cushion the impact of potential fuel price increases, while the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Department of Migrant Workers continue coordinating with partner countries to ensure the safe repatriation of Filipinos who wish to leave conflict-affected areas. — BM, GMA Integrated News