EXPLAINER: How long will PH oil supply last amid Middle East tensions?

As the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect global petroleum flows, concerns have been raised about the Philippines' fuel security, particularly how long its oil supply can meet consumer and industry demand.

The Philippines relies heavily on imported petroleum, making it vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains. 

Any slowdown in production or shipping can directly impact local fuel availability and prices.

The country made global news recently as the first in the world to declare a national energy emergency amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran.

Reserve oil supply

According to an Unang Balita report, data from the Department of Energy (DOE) showed that as of March 20, 2026, the country's oil reserves as follows:

• Gasoline: 53.14 days
• Diesel: 45.82 days
• Kerosene: 97.93 days
• Jet fuel: 38.62 days
• Fuel oil: 61.49 days
• Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): 23.51 days

In total, the Philippines' reserve oil supply is estimated to last 45.10 days, based on current demand and inventory levels.

Understanding the reserves

These figures reflect the number of days the country can continue operating using existing stocks and scheduled imports, assuming no major supply interruptions.

Energy authorities typically aim to maintain at least 30 days of supply as a buffer, as suggested by the International Energy Association. At over 45 days, the Philippines is above this threshold, but the relatively lower days for LPG and jet fuel suggest tighter margins for dependent sectors such as household consumers and aviation, respectively.

The Middle East plays a crucial role in global oil production. The ongoing conflict in the region can disrupt supply routes, delay shipments, and increase prices worldwide.

For an import-dependent country like the Philippines, this means even distant geopolitical events can have immediate local effects. 

Possible impact on consumers

While there is no immediate shortage, a prolonged disruption could lead to even higher fuel prices, increased transport and logistics costs, and pressure on industries that rely heavily on diesel and LPG.

The Department of Energy (DOE) has said it continues to coordinate with industry players to ensure steady supply and prevent shortages.

On Monday, Malacañang announced that President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. ordered the creation of a crisis committee amid the rising fuel prices brought by the conflict in the Middle East.

Executive Secretary Ralph Recto said Tuesday that the crisis committee will sustain and strengthen the several mitigation measures already imposed by the government to curb the impact of the oil price shocks.

That same day, the President issued the national energy emergency declaration and ordered the adoption of a Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport (UPLIFT) for affected sectors through Executive Order 110. 

After a five-year pause, Russian crude oil is back in the Philippines. The Sierra Leone-flagged Sara Sky, bearing over 700,000 barrels of high-quality crude from Russia's ESPO pipeline arrived on Monday, with documents showing the consignee as Petron Corp., operator of the Philippines' sole oil refinery, according to a source of the Agence France Presse. — VDV, GMA Integrated News