How will Habagat and Super El Niño affect the Philippines?

What should the country expect after state weather bureau PAGASA warned that the southwest monsoon, or Habagat, may coincide with a Super El Niño from June to August this year?

According to Mark Salazar’s report in “24 Oras” on Tuesday, PAGASA noted that there’s a 92% probability of Habagat coinciding with the Super El Niño from June to August.

“We will have more heavy rainfall events because we will likely experience an enhanced southwest monsoon. During El Niño, the easterlies weaken and become westerlies, and there are instances when typhoons recurve during June, July, and August. When typhoons recurve, they end up pulling in our Habagat,” said PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis.

PAGASA uses the term “very strong” El Niño, which others refer to as a “Super” El Niño. However, both terms mean the same thing based on Pacific Ocean surface temperature measurements.

“Because one model they based it on shows a warming of more than 3 degrees or more than 3.5 degrees, which can truly be called a super, very strong El Niño,” said Solis.

The intensity of the expected Super El Niño was last experienced back in the 1870s.

Historical data also shows that while a strong El Niño means fewer typhoons entering the country, the ones that do make landfall are much more destructive.

“It’s either strong winds or heavy rain. It is also possible to have no rain, or very little rain but with strong winds—so those are the characteristics of our typhoons with this El Niño,” Solis explained.

What are the effects of Super El Niño in the country?

According to data gathered by GMA News Research, there were nine tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the July 2023 to June 2024 El Niño. These are:

• Dodong (2023)
• Egay (2023)
• Falcon (2023)
• Goring (2023)
• Hanna (2023)
• Ineng (2023)
• Jenny (2023)
• Kabayan (2023)
• Aghon (2023)

During the November 2018 to July 2019 El Niño, 10 tropical cyclones entered PAR, including the Tropical Depression Usman in 2018, which killed over a hundred people. The other tropical cyclones that entered in that period were:

• Samuel (2018)
• Tomas (2018)
• Amang (2019)
• Betty (2019)
• Chedeng (2019)
• Dodong (2019)
• Egay (2019)
• Falcon (2019)
• Goring (2019)

It was also during the El Niño cycle when Typhoon Lando entered PAR in 2015.

PAGASA is urging the national government and local government units to prepare, especially since most urban drainage systems and flood control infrastructures are outdated and no longer adequate.

“Regarding the intensity and duration, it could be a heavy downpour where the rain becomes that intense in just a matter of hours, or the rain could be light but completely continuous,” said Solis.

While it’s still a long way off, the end of the Habagat season could give way to a prolonged drought, potentially affecting the country's food production.

“Since we are projecting this as a very strong El Niño, it will likely peak around October, November, and December. This means the prolonged dry spell or possible drought conditions will start then. By the end of the year until the first quarter, we will see a high possibility of a significant reduction in rainfall across almost the entire country,” said Solis.

Preparedness and mitigation measures have reportedly long been laid out before Task Force El Niño. But their efficacy will be tested during the actual onset of the El Niño phenomenon. —Vince Angelo Ferreras/RF, GMA News