OCTA Research: 55% prefer evidence before verdict in impeachment trial vs. VP Sara Duterte

At least 55 percent of Filipinos prefer to see the evidence presented during the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte before the Senate votes for conviction or acquittal, according to the latest non-commissioned survey from OCTA Research.

Meanwhile, the July 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) nationwide survey also showed that the "acquittal sentiment is concentrated in Mindanao and conviction leanings are strongest among the youngest and older-middle-aged Filipinos."

"First, a clear majority of Filipinos say it is still too early to decide and that they need to see the evidence presented during the trial," the survey showed.

Fifty-five percent take this position, while 21% prefer that the Senate-judges vote to acquit the Vice President and clear her of the charges, and 17% favor conviction and removal from office, while 7% have no opinion or remain undecided.

"The results suggest that there is currently no significant public mandate for either conviction or acquittal," OCTA Research said.

"The results also suggest that most Filipinos are withholding judgment and place importance on the presentation and evaluation of evidence before a final decision is reached. Second, the preference to see the evidence first is broadly shared across geographic and demographic groups. This position leads in all four major geographic areas and across socioeconomic classes," it also said, adding that the prevailing view is that the verdict should depend on the evidence presented during the trial.

The study conducted by OCTA Research as part of its July 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) nationwide survey in which fieldwork was conducted from July 4 to 11, 2026, using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above, male and female.

The survey has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level nationwide, and ±6% for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao subnational estimates, also at a 95% confidence level.

Respondents for the survey were 1,200 registered voters (with intention to vote including those who are undecided) who were interviewed face-to-face on current political, social, economic issues as well as personal and household information.

The evidence-first position leads in NCR (56%), Balance Luzon (58%), the Visayas (53%), and Mindanao (48%).

Mindanao records the highest preference for acquittal at 41%, while Balance Luzon posts the highest support for conviction at 22%.

By socioeconomic class, the same position leads among Class ABC (64%), Class D (54%), and Class E (50%). Class E is comparatively more likely to favor acquittal at 30%.

Age group

OCTA Research said Filipinos aged 18 to 34 and 55 to 64 show a greater relative lean toward conviction across age groups, the preference to see the evidence first is the leading response in every cohort, ranging from 49% among those aged 55 to 64 to 64% among those aged 35 to 44.

Respondents aged 18 to 24 record the highest support for conviction at 26%, while preference for acquittal is highest among those aged 45 to 54 at 28%.

The oldest respondents are the most likely to remain undecided: 28% among those aged 75 and above express no opinion, compared with 14% among those aged 65 to 74 and single digit levels among younger age groups.

"The preference to see the evidence first also leads among urban respondents (57%) and rural respondents (52%), as well as among males (53%) and females (56%). Views on conviction and acquittal are relatively similar by locale, while males are somewhat more likely than females to prefer acquittal (25% versus 18%)," the study showed.

Educational attainment

"By educational attainment, the evidence-first position is especially pronounced among respondents with vocational education at 72%. It also leads among those with high school education and those with college or postgraduate education, both at 57%. Respondents with no formal or elementary education are more divided: 39% prefer to see the evidence first, 34% favor acquittal, and 20% favor conviction," it also said. — BAP, GMA News