PNoy versus UNA's Three Kings

 

It’s halfway through the national campaign period and if we are to use the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys for our analysis, it looks like the administration’s Team PNoy ticket will dominate. Nine of its candidates are consistently making it into the top 12 with only three coming from the United Nationalist Alliance or UNA. One clear advantage that Team PNoy is heavily banking on is the high popularity of President Benigno “Noynoy”Aquino III (PNoy). This is expected to get a further boost with the recent announcement made by Fitch that the country has been upgraded to investment grade status.

 

UNA's Three Kings

 

Clearly, the earlier pronouncements made by one of UNA’s leaders, former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada, that his popularity together with that of Vice President Jejomar Binay and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile will overwhelm PNoy’s popularity isn’t coming true. Despite being present in most of UNA’s sorties, its so-called “Three Kings” haven’t been able to  lift many of its candidates. In fact, the son of Enrile, current Cagayan Rep. Jack Enrile who went as high as 4th place in the October 2012 surveys, is suddenly out of the Top 12 in the last SWS survey.

 

One criticism of PNoy has to do with his joining sorties of Team PNoy, making him neglect important affairs of state such as the conflict in Sabah. The spokespersons of Malacanang insist that while PNoy is campaigning he is also on top of the nation's problems. But why does PNoy expend so much time and energy to make his Team PNoy candidates win?

 

2013 will map out scenario for 2016

 

The reason lies in history. Historically, the last three years of the presidency can be the toughest years because traditionally the popularity of the sitting president goes down compared to the first half of his term. This is also the time that would-be candidates for president start finding ways to gain popularity by criticizing the president. We all know for a fact that Binay and Estrada’s son, Senator Jinggoy Estrada, are both looking at running for the Top 2 posts in 2016. In order for PNoy to continue his reform agenda, he will need the Senate to be on his side or this institution can be used by UNA to launch their own agenda to derail the efforts of PNoy.

 

Battle for Senate presidency looms: Drilon vs. Enrile

 

Looking at the current Senate make-up, it looks like it's going to be a battle between incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile and the Liberal Party’s Senator Franklin Drilon for the Senate presidency once Congress resumes this July. As things stand now, Drilon can expect incumbent Senators TG Guingona, Pia Cayetano, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Ralph Recto, Lito Lapid and Serge Osmeña to vote for him; while Enrile will have incumbent Senators Tito Sotto, Jinggoy Estrada and perhaps Bong Revilla behind him. In this scenario, Drilon who also serves as campaign manager of Team PNoy would only need to get seven more votes from the winners of the upcoming elections to assume the Senate presidency. If the present survey results hold until election day, Drilon will get nine votes while Enrile will receive an additional three votes. This scenario would provide PNoy with a friendly Senate that will enable him to pass important legislation. More importantly for PNoy and his party-mates in the LP, this would throw a monkey wrench into UNA’s plans to use the Senate for the 2016 elections.

 

Big mistake by UNA

 

Given that traditionally the race for the Senate Presidency is a close call and can actually be decided by the votes of one or two Senators, a major decision that UNA may eventually regret is its decision to drop its three common candidates, namely Grace Poe and Senators Chiz Escudero and Loren Legarda, all of whom are faring well in recent surveys. Instead of having these three as possible allies in the Senate, they have instantly alienated them and may have easily assured Drilon and LP an additional three votes that could make or break the race for the leadership of the Senate.

 

In the end, the 2013 elections will be a referendum on the Aquino administration. If the majority of Filipinos continue to believe in PNoy’s leadership then his Team PNoy will easily win the majority of the seats and he will be able to wrest control of the Senate. But if in the middle of the campaign period his numbers start to drop, don’t be surprised if UNA suddenly makes the race more interesting.

 

Comments are welcome at harveykeh@gmail.com

Follow me at Twitter: @harveykeh

 

Harvey S. Keh is Director for Youth Leadership and Social Entrepreneurship at the Ateneo de Manila University-School of Government and is also the Lead Convenor of the Kaya Natin! Movement for Good Governance and Ethical Leadership.