OPINION: From COVID to oil crisis: Have we learned?

The short answer is no.

For one, it feels like déjà vu in recent weeks. Less vehicular traffic and more cyclists are observed on major roads. Work-from-home arrangements are being promoted again. Even community pantries have reemerged once more in the spirit of true bayanihan.

If the war in the Middle East continues for months, classes would go back to being online. We would also experience serious issues in food supply, as importations and domestic transport of agricultural products along value chains would also be affected.   

Obviously, the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil crisis brought by the war in the Middle East are not exactly dilemmas of the same nature or origins. But some of their impacts are eerily similar, exposing widespread vulnerabilities and the resulting socioeconomic impacts on Filipinos.

These realities on the ground reflect several trends that tell us the long answer to the question.

Longer answer

First, it is clear the government’s decision-making during crises has not been responsive enough to the needs of the poor. 

There is an ongoing debate on social media on which option is best: suspending the fuel excise tax or targeted subsidies for poor sectors. They have pros and cons – easing the burden on consumers versus preserving fiscal stability or reducing transport costs versus protecting already-dwindling incomes.  

Honestly, the most likely option is a hybrid approach including both options, with triggers for activating the suspension, like reaching a price level per oil barrel. This answer is not just to take the safest “neutral” option in public discourse, but because we need to acknowledge actual realities in governance as much as on the ground.

With all due respect to some experts, they cannot assume that the “ayuda” system and the tax schemes that would fuel the former is not affected by inefficiencies and corruption. They should not be treated as separate issues, either. Filipinos have earned the right to be skeptical after years of seeing a supposed pro-poor process being taken advantage of, including by those with political interests. 

The truth is that every peso means much more to the poor than the rich. This is part of why the poorest are always disproportionately affected during crises – effects that numbers and models alone cannot fully capture. There is even a valid argument that the middle-class, who end up with few benefits compared to their high taxes, are also left behind in these discussions. 

Second, the current situation has yet again exposed the government’s weaknesses in crisis management. Unlike what some people would brazenly claim, issues exposed by the pandemic are still here: gaps in existing policies, inefficient aid distribution, misleading messaging, and lack of structural readiness, especially during the early phase.  

Yes, neither the pandemic nor the war in the Middle East was in the Philippines’ control. But there is a difference between responding with planned protocols beforehand and reacting only as it happens.

Yes, we must urgently respond to short-term impacts, especially if the conflict continues for much longer. But just because long-term proposals seem unlikely does not automatically mean they are not worth considering.

This is why the “wealth tax” idea is once again gaining traction. This is why changes should be made immediately to the Philippine Oil Deregulation Act to enable the government powers to act in times like this, without creating a fiscal collapse, and avoid dependence on private oil reserves.    

And this is why structural reforms, which should have been implemented years ago, must be done – removing bottlenecks, strengthening accountability and transparency mechanisms, being proactive than reactive, among others that must be in a governance system that responds to the needs of the people.

But we need to see more decisive and urgent decision-making from our leaders and prove to the nation that we are beginning to learn from the COVID-19 lockdowns and other crises of the past.   

Longer-term

Continuing on the longer-term angle, let us switch to the climate lens. In reducing reliance on oil, many of the long-term solutions are on their way – again, they should have happened years ago, but at least they are coming.

So how do we reduce reliance on oil? By improving mass public transport systems at a more accelerated pace. By enhancing infrastructure for bicycle lanes and other modes of active transport. By enacting a just transition towards a renewable energy (RE)-dominated economy and society, including electric vehicles. 

This is what climate advocates have been lobbying to the government for years. And to be fair, projects expanding railway systems are currently being built. Long-overdue repairs along EDSA are being done, including more bicycle lanes and wider sidewalks. Investments for RE are being actively secured.   

Through these solutions, we must ensure that the government does not lose sight of the social justice angle that should be automatic in decision-making. The Public Utility Vehicle Modernization Program is not known to have a great track record in considering the financial hurdles faced by many jeepney drivers. Some RE projects are also threatening nearby sites of biodiversity importance and the livelihoods and well-being of local communities.   

As harmful as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic or the oil crisis have been so far, there will be more crises to come. Climate change alone, which is already happening and is worsening our vulnerabilities more than most Filipinos can instantly realize, will require our government to get its act together, let alone improve leaps and bounds in crisis management. 

But whichever issue we are collectively facing, those who govern must never forget to recognize what is really happening on the ground. Sure, considering the economics and concerns of the private sector are necessary, but too often policies and decisions favor market interests, while not prioritizing as much the needs of the far greater number of Filipinos that they are mandated to serve.

This is not to be another “doomsday” message; we are just being realistic. Once we get past this, there will be a next crisis. Will we ever learn?
 
John Leo Algo is the national coordinator of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas and the deputy executive director for programs and campaigns of Living Laudato Si’ Philippines. He is also a member of the Youth Advisory Group for Environmental and Climate Justice under the UNDP in Asia and the Pacific. He has been a climate and environment journalist since 2016.