Record-breaking El Niño may arrive by October —PAGASA  

Despite the Southwest Monsoon dumping rains across the Philippines in August, the state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned of a possibly record-breaking El Niño in the coming months.

In a "24 Oras" report from Dano Tingcungco on Wednesday, lesser rains are expected come October due to the El Niño phenomenon.

PAGASA said that the El Niño could last until March or even June. Around 40 provinces are expected to experience lesser rainfall during the dry spell and drought. Once January comes, it is expected that this number could leap to 80.

“Malaki chance na it will be very strong El Niño,” said PAGASA Director Nathaniel Servando. (There is a big chance that there will be a very strong El Niño.)

Other than the drier weather, temperatures are also expected to rise from the minimum of 3 degrees Celsius to 38.7 degrees Celsius.

“Mas mataas ang probability na ang impact nito ay posibleng maransasan, lalong-lalo na po in terms of significant reduction of rainfall, mas mainit na temperatura, therefore posibleng maapektuhan including yung mga agriculture natin, kapag nagtagal…hindi kami nananakot, hindi po yung alarming na sinasabi namin but it could happen, but based on historical record, since 1950s, 75% ang tsansa na ito ay malalampasan yung historikal na El Niño episodes,” PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said.

(There is a higher probability that the impact of this will be possibly felt, especially in terms of significant reduction of rainfall and hotter temperatures, therefore it could affect our agriculture if it is prolonged… we are not scaring you, we do not want to be alarming but it could happen, but based on historical record, since the 1950s, there is a 75% chance that this will surpass the previous El Niño episodes.)

The World Food Programme said that they are working with PAGASA to understand the kind of aid needed by the Philippines.—Jean Mangaluz/LDF, GMA News