PAGASA: Above-normal rain seen from October 2025 to February 2026 with La Niña conditions

PAGASA announced higher chances of above-normal rainfall from October 2025 to February 2026 especially in the eastern section of the Philippines due to increased chances of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This may also be caused by combinations of rain-bearing weather systems, which may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides in susceptible areas, the weather bureau added.

PAGASA said La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific area.

"Periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in August 2025 continue to persist and further strengthened reaching La Niña conditions threshold of -0.5°C sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in September 2025, as shown by the recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators," PAGASA said.

"La Niña condition exist if a one-month SSTA of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the 3-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., September-October-November (SON), December-January-February (DJF)). It is likely that La Niña conditions will continue at least until DJF 2025-2026 season as suggested by several climate models," it added.d.

According to PAGASA, La Niña conditions are determined if a one-month SSTA of -0.5°C or less occurs and is expected to last for more than 3 months. –Jiselle Anne C. Casucian/NB, GMA Integrated News