'Short-lived' La Niña to affect PH until early 2026 —PAGASA

A “short-lived” La Niña phenomenon has emerged in the tropical Pacific and will last until the first quarter of 2026, PAGASA said Friday.

“Recent oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that La Niña has developed in the tropical Pacific,” the state weather bureau said in an advisory.

“Since September 2025, the sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific started to decrease and further declined in November, reaching a weak La Niña threshold. Based on the latest forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2026,” it added.

According to PAGASA, weak La Niña conditions exist if a one-month sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the three-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., September-October-November (SON), November-December-January (NDJ)).

“It is likely that this La Niña will continue at least until the December 2025 to February 2026 season as suggested by several climate models,” it said.

La Niña is usually characterized with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year, PAGASA said.

Thus, higher chances of above-normal rainfall in the December 2025 to February 2026 season are expected, which may bring floods, flashfloods, and rain-induced landslides.

Further, an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period is likely, PAGASA added. —VAL, GMA Integrated News