PAGASA: Up to 8 storms expected in 1st half of 2026

Up to eight tropical cyclones are expected to hit the country in the first six months of 2026, according to the state weather bureau.

Based on PAGASA’s climate outlook for January to June 2026, the expected storms per month are as follows:

• January: 0 or 1
• February: 0 or 1
• March: 0 or 1
• April: 0 or 1
• May: 1 or 2
• June: 1 or 2

PAGASA said in January, above normal to near-normal rainfall conditions are expected in most of the country except in the western portions of Luzon, where below-normal rainfall is more likely to persist.

From February to April, most of the Visayas and Mindanao could experience near-normal rainfall, while above-normal rainfall is expected in eastern Mindanao.

Near-normal rainfall conditions are also expected over most parts of the country in May, with above-normal rainfall likely over eastern Visayas and eastern Mindanao.

In June, near-normal rainfall conditions are expected across the country.

Most parts of the country will likely experience near-normal to above-normal mean temperatures.

PAGASA said near normal conditions may still occur during the early months, with isolated cooder than average areas.

“But a gradual warming trend is expected from March onwards, with above to way above normal temperature becoming more prevalent during the peak of the warm season (April-May),”  PAGASA said.

“By June, temperatures are expected to remain generally above normal, although near normal conditions may occur in some areas,” it added.

PAGASA earlier announced that a “short-lived” weak La Niña phenomenon has emerged in the tropical Pacific and will last until the first quarter of 2026.

La Niña is usually characterized by above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year, PAGASA said.

The state weather bureau will continue to monitor El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and will issue updates and advisories accordingly. — Mariel Celine Serquiña/RF, GMA Integrated News