PAGASA: 4 to 11 tropical cyclones expected from February to June 2026

The Philippines may look forward to near-normal to above-normal mean temperatures over the next few months as the Pacific region observes weak La Niña conditions for the first half of 2026.

According to PAGASA’s climate outlook, the country may expect four to 11 tropical cyclones to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility from February to June 2026.

The distribution of possible cyclones per month is as follows:

• February: 0 or 1
• March: 0 or 1
• April: 0 or 1
• May: 1 or 2
• June: 1 or 2
• July: 2 or 4

Maximum temperatures are predicted to range between 31.8 to 39.5 in April to May, and take place in the lowlands Luzon.

Metro Manila’s peak temperature is predicted at 36.5 to 38.1 on May.

The minimum temperature forecast in the country ranges between 10.0 and 13.9 from February to March in mountainous Luzon, while Metro Manila’s lowest temperature of 18.4 to 24.2 will be felt around February.

The rainfall forecast from February to May is varied, with below-normal to way below-normal rainfall expected around the western parts of northern and central Luzon from February to May.

Below-normal rainfall may also be observed in MIMAROPA, Bicol and western Visayas in some months.

The rest of the country is predicted to have below-normal and above-normal rainfall.

Meanwhile, from February to June, the following weather systems are set to affect the Philippines:

• Easterlies
• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
• Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
• Northeast Monsoon
• Localized Thunderstorms
• Shear Line
• Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA)
• Frontal System

Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon will start its onset between May 16 and June 15.—LDF, GMA Integrated News