La Niña to weaken by summer; 6–14 cyclones possible — PAGASA

State weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday that La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific but is expected to weaken in the coming months, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely by late summer.

During the 193rd Climate Forum, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Dr. Joseph Basconcillo said climate models indicate a 60% probability of a shift from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions during the February–March–April 2026 season.

ENSO-neutral conditions prevail when neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. 

Neutral conditions are expected to continue through June to August, PAGASA said.

“La Niña is still present in the tropical Pacific. However, models suggest a 60% probability of transition to ENSO-neutral during the February–March–April 2026 season,” Basconcillo said.

The ENSO alert status remains under La Niña.

Below-normal rains in Luzon in March

Based on PAGASA’s long-range forecast for March to August 2026, below- to way-below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of Luzon in March, except Southern Luzon.

Mindanao, meanwhile, is forecast to experience above-normal rainfall in March, while the rest of the country will likely receive near-normal rainfall, PAGASA said.

By April, near-normal rainfall is expected across much of the country, although isolated below-normal conditions may still occur in parts of Luzon and the Visayas.

In May, rainfall is projected to increase in some areas, with above-normal precipitation likely in Palawan, most parts of the Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao.

From June to July, near-normal rainfall conditions are expected across most of the country, coinciding with the onset and strengthening of the southwest monsoon or habagat.

By August, near-normal rainfall is still expected in most areas, with isolated pockets of below-normal rainfall.

PAGASA said rainfall will become more concentrated over the western section of the country by June and July, consistent with habagat patterns.

Up to 14 cyclones seen

PAGASA is forecasting six to 14 tropical cyclones that may develop within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between March and August 2026.

Weather systems expected to affect the country during the period include:

• Northeast monsoon (amihan)
• Shear line and frontal systems
• Easterlies
• Low-pressure areas
• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
• Southwest monsoon (habagat), which typically sets in between May 16 and June 15

Temperatures are also expected to rise as the dry season progresses.

PAGASA projects near- to above-normal mean temperatures across most parts of the country, with isolated areas possibly experiencing slightly cooler-than-average conditions in March and April.

Beginning May, however, slightly warmer- to warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast to prevail nationwide.

For extreme temperatures:

• Northern Luzon may record temperatures ranging from 24.4°C to 39.9°C in April and May.
• Lowland Luzon may experience temperatures between 19.8°C and 39.6°C.
• Metro Manila could see temperatures reach as high as 37.5°C in April.

More dry days in early months

PAGASA’s dry-day forecast indicates that many parts of Luzon may experience an increased number of dry days in March and April before rainfall patterns normalize from June to August.

A “dry day” is defined as a day with less than 1 millimeter of rainfall.

Basconcillo urged the public and concerned agencies to continue monitoring PAGASA advisories, particularly as the country transitions from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.—MCG, GMA Integrated News