PAGASA monitors potential El Niño in 2026

State meteorologists are keeping a close watch on the potential development of El Niño in the middle of the year.

According to Mark Salazar’s report on "24 Oras" on Tuesday, seven areas recorded heat indices between 40 and 41 degrees Celsius on Monday.

“When you are outdoors and it’s 40 to 41 degrees, we categorize that as ‘danger.’ This is alarming,” said PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Jorybell Masallo.

The agency noted that the early spike in heat could signal a dry season with perceived temperatures reaching up to 52 degrees Celsius.

“Temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius and above are considered extreme danger. People with pre-existing conditions, the elderly, and outdoor workers are particularly vulnerable to heat stroke,” Masallo warned.

PAGASA is also tracking the potential onset of El Niño, which has over a 50% chance of developing between July and September. If it coincides with the Southwest Monsoon, or Habagat, the impact could be severe.

“What we look at as comparable years are 2009–2010 and 2014–2015. In 2010, Tropical Storm Ondoy struck in September, and in 2014–2015, Typhoon Glenda caused widespread damage in the Bicol Region, Southern Luzon, and Metro Manila," said PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis.

"We hope it won’t happen again, but that’s the risk if El Niño aligns with the peak of Habagat season,” she added.

After El Niño weakens typhoons and the Habagat, it can intensify drought conditions beginning in December and lasting through the summer of 2027.

“This could affect the high temperatures we may experience during the next warm and dry season in 2027, so we need to monitor closely,” Solis said.

PAGASA and the Department of Agriculture (DA) are working together to guide farmers during the planting season amid El Niño.

“The major lesson from 2024 is to prepare for the worst. The solar-powered irrigation project addresses two problems: it allows the use of groundwater and open water sources, which is excellent,” said DA spokesperson Arnel de Mesa.

“With solar irrigation, farmers no longer need diesel, and having control over irrigation water makes it easier for them to diversify crops.”

A P340-million fund has been allocated to deploy technology that will help farmers mitigate El Niño’s effects.

“For areas beyond the reach of the NIA’s irrigation system—or those without irrigation at all—it’s vital to have a sustainable groundwater or open water source, such as rivers and lakes,” De Mesa said.—Vince Angelo Ferreras/MCG, GMA Integrated News