PAGASA issues El Niño Watch

PAGASA has officially issued an "El Niño Watch" in preparation for the 2026 dry season.

In a press conference on Wednesday, PAGASA Deputy Administrator for Administration and Engineering Services Shirley David said that the decision came due to an increasing probability of a transition taking place as early as July to September.

“Ito ay isang early advisory na nagsasabing may mataas na posibilidad na mabuo ito sa mga susunod na buwan. In short po, this is our lead time for preparedness,” she said.

(This is an early advisory that states there is a high chance that it will be formed in the coming months. In short, this is our lead time for preparedness.)

The end of the La Niña phenomenon was declared by the state weather bureau last March 9, and the country is currently at what PAGASA called "El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)."

The watch is issued when conditions are favorable, with a 55% chance of El Niño development within the next 6 months.

At the moment, El Niño has a 62% chance of developing in the months of June-July-August and has at least an 83% chance of lasting until the end of 2026.

PAGASA noted that El Niño often comes with below normal rainfall conditions, which can lead to dry spells and drought in some areas.

Impact

PAGASA advised the public to prepare for a weak to moderate El Niño before it arrives.

The state weather bureau said that El Niño conditions often affect the country’s agriculture, water, energy, and health sectors.

“It's too early to say… Ito yung mga naranasan natin na ma-epekto sa ating bansa in the past events na mayroon tayong El Niño. Maganda sana na wala pa man ay... paghandaan ang posibleng epekto nitong El Niño,” PAGASA weather services chief Thelma Cinco shared.

(It’s too early to say… These are what we experience in the country in the past events of El Niño. It’s better that before it even arrives, whatever we experienced in the past can be used to prepare for the possible effects of El Niño.) —VAL, GMA Integrated News