How surveys 'missed' Grace Poe but predicted right 'Magic 12'

Many may have predicted who would end up winning in the senatorial polls but no one was able to predict that Grace Poe would snatch away the number one spot from perennial topnotcher Sen. Loren Legarda, not even survey firms.

 

According to the official votes canvassed by the poll body as of 4:04 p.m. Friday, nine Team PNoy bets and three United Nationalist Alliance candidates are most likely to get Senate seats.

 

Poe leads the pack with 16,260,239. Following her in the top 12 are:

 

 

On Thursday evening, the Commission on Elections already proclaimed Poe, Legarda, Escudero, Cayetano, Binay, and Angara as newly-elected senators.

 

Both Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS) in their surveys predicted that the same set of candidates would end up getting Senate seats.  
 

 

"Given the statistical ties, the most probable final Team PNoy-UNA score is 9-3, with 12th place going to either Honasan or Enrile who are both from UNA," the SWS said in its last survey before the elections.

 

However, both polling firms missed the likelihood that Poe would come out on top.

 

According to the SWS survey conducted May 2 to 3, Legarda was ranked first while Poe was fifth.

 

On the other hand, the Pulse Asia survey conducted between May 10 to 11, 2013 showed Legarda on top while Poe at 2nd to 7th places.

Missing the boat on Poe's large and growing lead over everyone else is reminiscent of Jejomar Binay's surprise win in the race for the vice presidency in 2010, which the surveys had also failed to predict. It was generally believed, by the polling firms and the public, that the main rivals for the post were Legarda and Mar Roxas.
 

 

'Snapshots'

 

In trying to explain this, Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes told GMA News Online that surveys are a "snapshot of voting preference."

 

However, Holmes said there are factors that pre-election surveys do not take into account, like the influence of sample ballots, the role of command votes, and the actual turnout of voters.

 

"[Thus] the results of the election may differ from pre-election surveys. For this reason, the survey that could be most accurate in predicting election results is not a pre-electoral survey but an exit poll," he said.

 

Political analyst Mon Casiple likewise said that although surveys are reliable in spotting "general trends," its reliability is not absolute.

 

"There are several factors na hindi na-take into account, hindi lumitaw," Casiple told GMA News Online in a separate interview on Friday.

 

He specifically cited the influence of Poe's late father, National Artist Fernando Poe Jr., who was allegedly cheated during the 2004 presidential elections.

 

"Pwede mo sabihin [hindi] nakakita ng closure yung mga tao. [Baka yung iba naisip nila yun] dun na mismo sa presinto," he said.

 

But Holmes said that although Poe never placed first in any of their surveys, she was the only one who had not shown any reduction in her voting preference since November 2012 and had even increased her voting support in their surveys during the same period.

 

"Thus, her voting support trajectory was moving upwards relative to other candidates," he said.

 

Margins of error

 

The same Pulse Asia survey had placed Angara lower, at 5th to 11th places. He has been occupying the sixth place since the canvassing started.

 

It likewise put Ejercito at 7th to 11th places although he is now lagging in the official results at 11th place.

 

In the same manner, it ranked Villar at 3rd to 8th places although official results canvassed so far place her at 10th.

 

Holmes, however, said this is the reason why they apply a margin of error to the rankings.

 

"You will notice in our surveys that when we apply the margin of error, the rank of a candidate may go from 2nd to 7th," he said.

 

But he noted that even if those who ranked well in surveys end up winners, that does not mean that voters were influenced by their surveys.

 

"What it shows is that we systematically captured voting preferences that are subsequently reflected by official results," he said.

 

Casiple added that there is no scientific basis to claim the same.

 

"Walang ebidensya yan, matagal na yan assertion ng natalo. Surveys by themselves may [have an] effect siyempre sa ilan pero I doubt [na] decisive siya," he said. — RSJ/HS, GMA News