Fewer Filipino families ‘poor’

REPORT FROM BUSINESSWORLD Fewer Filipino families describe themselves as poor, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed, but the result could be due to what the independent research institute described as a "lowering of living standards." Self-rated poverty fell to 47% in June from 53% in February, the second lowest for the Arroyo government and one of the best scores since 1986, the SWS survey, made exclusive to BusinessWorld, showed. The last time self-rated poverty dipped to the 40% range under the administration of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was in August 2005 (49%) and before that in December 2004 and March 2005 (48%), and June 2004 (46%). Self-rated poverty touched a high of 66% three times from 2001 to 2002, SWS data show. It ranged from 54-65% under Joseph E. Estrada, 57-70% during the watch of Fidel V. Ramos, and 43-71% when Corazon C. Aquino was Chief Executive. The SWS, however, noted the results "occurred in the context of a lowering of families’ living standards," where the monthly budget poor households said they need in order not to be poor "has actually fallen in money terms, despite the steady increase in the cost of living." In the survey, the self-rated poverty threshold for poor families in Metro Manila was P9,000 per month, while those in the rest of the nation required P5,000 (Luzon), P6,000 (Visayas), and P4,000 (Mindanao). The median threshold, however, has already gone up to P15,000 a number of times in Metro Manila, the SWS said, while in the rest of the Philippines it had hit a high of P10,000. "Since mid-2004, the median poverty threshold of poor households in Metro Manila has considerably weakened against the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose by over 40% since its base year of 2000," the SWS said The declining poverty threshold in the face of rising cost of living, it said, is a manifestation of "belt-tightening." The SWS said the median poverty threshold of P9,000 per month for the June 2007 survey is in fact equivalent to only P6,259 in base year 2000 purchasing power, adjusted for deflation by dividing it with the new CPI of 143.8. It has been twenty years since the deflated poverty threshold for Metro Manila went below P7,000 per month, the SWS said. It pointed out that during four survey rounds in 2000, the base year of the CPI, the median poverty threshold for Metro Manila was already P10,000/month or P14,380 at the June 2007 cost of living, based on the new CPI. The over P5,000 difference "measures the extent of belt-tightening that took place", the SWS concluded. The government, however, said the latest survey results validated the efficacy of its anti-hunger drive. "That is because of the focused attention of our hunger mitigation campaign in the National Capital Region and 10 priority provinces," Domingo F. Panganiban, lead convenor of the National Anti-Poverty Commission (NAPC), said. "Priority 1" provinces are the Mountain Province, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Lanao del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Saranggani, Zamboanga del Norte, and Zamboanga Sibugay. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo early this year ordered the Cabinet, along with the NAPC and the National Nutrition Council, to bring down hunger incidence in six months or by the end of August. Economist Victor A. Abola from the University of Asia and the Pacific, meanwhile, said the survey findings "confirms what I expect would come out at the end of the month, the second quarter National Income Accounts that will see growth over 6%." An anticipated expansion of gross domestic product in the second quarter would be driven by government spending and consumption, and high rate of growth manifested in the services, construction and mining sectors, Mr. Abola said. He argued that it was difficult to draw a "belt-tightening" conclusion, saying "if non-cash income was not considered, it is possible to have a lower ’constant prices threshold’, as the non-cash income may have increased significantly from 2000 to 2007." He added that using a fixed weighted CPI (2000) "may well differ from a CPI using current [2006 or 2007 weights]." "It is difficult to conceive of very large belt-tightening, as computed using SWS survey results, for one who considers himself poor. They should look into the real reason [of] the drop in real poverty threshold income," Mr. Abola said. He suggested that respondents who considered themselves poor should be asked "how they would have rated themselves some time in the past, and why the change or no change." Meanwhile, the NAPC’s Mr. Panganiban said he expects income to rise in the long-term because of self-employment opportunities provided by government. Presidential Management Staff director-general Cerge M. Remonde, for his part, said the survey results should be viewed in a positive light. "Regardless of whatever it is attributed, the fact that Filipinos are feeling better about their economic condition is something to be happy about," he declared. The SWS fielded the survey from June 27 to 30 to 1,200 respondents nationwide. Sampling error margins were +/-3% for national percentages and +/-6% for area percentages. — Josefa L. Cagoco/BusinessWorld