Inflation could pick up to as high as 7.4% in September — BSP

Inflation could accelerate to as high as 7.4% this month, mainly due to weather disturbances affecting agricultural prices, higher pump prices and the depreciation of the Philippine peso, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said Wednesday.

The central bank said it expects September 2026 inflation to range between 6.4% and 7.4%, following four consecutive months of deceleration, with inflation settling at 6.1% in August.

The BSP said upward price pressures this month could come from higher prices of vegetables, fish, rice and fruits due to weather disturbances, as well as increased domestic petroleum prices and the depreciation of the peso.

“Upward price pressures for the month are likely to be driven by weather-related increases in the prices of vegetables, fish, rice, and fruits. Increased domestic petroleum prices and depreciation of the peso could likewise contribute to higher inflation,” the BSP said in an advisory.

Several areas in the Philippines have been hit by tropical cyclones Luis, Maymay, Neneng and Pilandok, as well as the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, with estimated agricultural damage and losses reaching P4.38 billion, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).

The Philippine peso has also traded at the P62:$1 level for most of the month and hit a fresh all-time low of P62.86:$1 on September 14, 2026, its 25th record low so far this year.

The BSP, however, said these pressures could be partly offset by lower meat prices and electricity rates.

“These pressures could be offset by lower prices of meat and electricity rates,” the central bank said.

The Manila Electric Company (Meralco) announced a 4.09-centavo-per-kilowatt-hour reduction in its September rates, translating to an estimated P8 reduction in the total electricity bill of residential customers consuming 200 kilowatt-hours.

“The BSP will remain vigilant and guided by incoming data, particularly on inflation and growth prospects. It will continue to assess the impact of latest developments in the Middle East and recent weather disturbances on the country’s inflation and economic outlook,” it added.— MCG, GMA News