Philippines' economic growth seen to slow down to 2% in 2020, says Pernia

The Philippine economy is expected to contract in the second quarter especially after President Rodrigo Duterte extended the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon to April 30, Socio-economic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia has said.

Overall, Pernia said the Philippine economy may only grow by 2.0% this year.

"The economy will be suffering some contraction. The second quarter GDP is likely to be negative and if extended say by two weeks, it's even more certain that it will be negative in the second quarter," Pernia told GMA News.

"There will be some inertia that will be felt in the third quarter and that will also have some effect on the third quarter GDP growth. Hopefully not negative. Hopefully recovering a bit," he added.

"We could expect a low growth rate. Perhaps two percent. Between zero and two percent for the whole year," Pernia said.

The NEDA Chief acknowledged the importance of prioritizing the health of Filipinos but added the government is doing its best to balance health and economy.

Meanwhile, economist Noel Leyco sees a sharp contraction in the Philippine economy that may result in loss of jobs and hunger.

"Imposible na ang 6%. Mas malamang ang negative growth kung magpatuloy pa at lalong lumala ang sitwasyon sa bansa at buong daigdig. Ang kahulugan nito, ay marami ang mawawalan ng trabaho at malawakang kagutuman ang puwedeng asahan kung magpatuloy ang paglala ng sitwasyon," Leyco told GMA News.

"Natigil ang produksyon at kahit na maseselan na sektor ng ekonomiya ay malubha ring naapektuhan. Hindi makapasok ang mga empleyado at hindi rin makapamili ang maraming mamamayan," he said.

Leyco, who is also the President of the Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Maynila, added that the  effect of the COVID pandemic on other countries will impact the remittances of Filipinos working abroad.

“Dagdag pa ang lockdown sa Amerika at ibang bansa, ang remittances na mahigit $2 billion kada buwan ay maaari ding bumaba sa kalahati o $1 billion na lang dahil marami ring Pilipino ang maaring nawalan na rin ng trabaho sa America, Europa at ibang bansa.  Ang mga seamen natin ay umuuwi na rin,” Leyco said. -NB, GMA News