Consumer confidence turns sour, businesses upbeat in Q4

Filipino consumers’ confidence about the economy turned sour in the last quarter of the year, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ surveys.

Results of the BSP’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) showed that consumer confidence index (CI) turned more negative to -22.2% in the October to December 2025 period from -9.8% in the third quarter.

A negative CI means there are more respondents with a negative outlook than a positive outlook.

The Central Bank said consumers cited graft and corruption concerns, higher inflation, lower household income, and unfavorable weather conditions and other natural calamities as the main reasons for the negative outlook.

Meanwhile, results of the Business Expectation Survey found that the business sector was more optimistic about the economy in the fourth quarter of the year, driven by an expected increase in consumer spending during the holiday season.

This as overall business confidence index increased to 29.7% in the October to December 2025 period from 23.2% in the previous quarter.

A positive CI means more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic.

Apart from holiday spending, Filipino firms also cited higher firm productivity and operational efficiency, rollout of new products and services, and a favorable inflation environment as positive drivers of business sentiment in the current quarter.

The BSP said the business sentiment for the next quarter and the next 12 months remained positive, although less upbeat, reflecting continued optimism over the economy’s near-term prospects.

Firms’ CI stood at 23.7% for the first quarter of 2026, down from 49.5% while the year-ahead confidence score settled at 40.4%, down from 48.1 percent previously.

The lingering effects of the recent natural calamities, together with the negative impact of corruption allegations on investor and business sentiment, were cited as reasons that weighed down the outlook for the upcoming periods, according to the BSP.

Likewise, consumer CI for the next quarter and the next 12 months were positive at 3.6% and 11.8%, respectively, reflecting favorable outlook in the near term.

The BES and CES are key economic surveillance tools of the BSP and its results are important inputs to monetary policy formulation, the Central Bank said. — BAP, GMA Integrated News