Accountability concerns may keep PH political risks elevated, BMI warns

Political risks in the Philippines may remain elevated as growing public concern over a perceived lack of accountability among senior officials could weaken trust in government institutions, Fitch Solutions unit BMI said in a report Friday.

In a commentary, BMI said the Middle East crisis remains the main driver of rising social and political risks in the Philippines, but political divisions linked to the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte are amplifying social discontent.

"The appearance of impropriety or perceived lack of accountability is likely to undermine the credibility of the corruption probe, which we think will keep political risk elevated in the Philippines," BMI said.

"(A) potential trigger for renewed unrest is the perception that senior figures remain insulated from accountability," it added, noting that the Philippines' Rule of Law Indicator in the Political Risk Index has been steadily rising, highlighting increasing risks of weakened accountability.

The commentary was released two days after gunshots were fired inside the Senate premises, prompting a lockdown after the Articles of Impeachment against Duterte were delivered to the chamber past 7:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

The Senate leadership was changed on Monday, May 11, 2026, with Senator Alan Peter Cayetano taking over as Senate President, the same day the House of Representatives voted to impeach Duterte over allegations of graft and corruption and other high crimes.

BMI noted that Senators Francis "Chiz" Escudero, Joel Villanueva, and Jinggoy Estrada—who were allegedly linked to the flood control scandal and flagged for further investigation—voted for Cayetano.

Cayetano on Thursday said the Senate may convene as an impeachment court on Monday, May 18, 2026 or "at the possible soonest time" following the receipt of the Articles of Impeachment.

"As a key ally of Sara, (Cayetano's) accession significantly reduces the already narrow path to conviction. Indeed, Duterte allies can now shape the pace and narrative of the trial," BMI said.

"If the Senate overreaches by either stonewalling proceedings or dispensing with a proper trial, this will likely prove divisive given mounting clamour for a proper trial, rising political risks in the Philippines," BMI said. — VDV, GMA News