Mindanao quakes hint at ‘The Big One's’ effects on Metro Manila —UP Nec

The devastating effects of the recent temblors that shook Mindanao during the latter part of the year, give a glimpse of what could happen if a major earthquake, like "The Big One", struck Metro Manila, according to the University of the Philippines National Engineering Center (UP NEC). 

The effects of the recent Mindanao quakes can be seen in media reports and from National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) statistics, said the UP NEC.

In a press release, the Center emphasized that more than 7 people were killed during the 6.9 magnitude quake; 260,000 people were displaced by the previous quakes; 35,000 houses were totally or partially damaged; and more than 37,000 structures were damaged in Region 9, 11, 12 and BARMM.

After citing a Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) report, which plotted 18 predicted scenarios for a major earthquake above a 7.2 magnitude that could hit Metro Manila, the UP NEC highlighted the importance of disaster resilience and preparedness.

"The scenarios predicted by experts once the Big One hits Metro Manila is much worse than what we’ve seen in North Cotabato & now in Davao del Sur... it’s time to take disaster resilience and preparedness seriously," the UP NEC wrote.

The worst-case scenario predicted by the PHIVOLCS which involves the West Valley Fault, which could generate a magnitude 8 earthquake.

In a newspaper interview about a worse-case scenario involving the West Valley Fault, PHIVOLCS Executive Director Renato Solidum said that about 48,000 people could die in Metro Manila, Region III, and Region IV-A, and 20,000 people could be seriously injured from the quake.

Aside from that, fires could break out in affected areas, and these could cause thousands more deaths and more than a hundred thousand injuries.

Another place where "The Big One" could strike was the Manila Trench, which was about 327 kilometers from Luzon.

"Besides deaths and injuries from the earthquake, a tsunami could be triggered resulting in more destruction and death," the UP NEC said.

Recognizing these scenarios, President Rodrigo Duterte in 2018 created a quake resiliency body in the Program Management Office for Earthquake Resiliency of the Greater Metro Manila Area (PMO-ERG). 

Despite this, the UP NEC strongly urged citizens to follow several steps to improve disaster resilience and preparedness:

• prepare emergency supplies before the quake,
• prepare action plans that can be implemented when the earthquake strikes,
• refer to resources on emergency preparedness such as www.ph72.org, and
• support efforts to audit and assess the "earthquake-resilience" of houses, and other community structures.

— Angelica Y. Yang/DVM, GMA News