Philippines' COVID-19 cases may reach 100k by end of August —UP profs

The number of COVID-19 cases in the country may reach 100,000 by the end of August, according to University of the Philippines professors on Tuesday.

In an interview on Dobol B sa News TV, Professor Guido David from the UP Institute of Mathematics said the actual number of cases may still go beyond this projection.

"Posibleng lumagpas pa sa 100,000 pero gusto muna nating makita by end of July. End of July kasi ang projection natin baka pumalo ng 70,000," he added.

Professor Ranjit Rye from the UP Department of Political Science also confirmed the said projection.

He added that the low estimate of COVID-19 cases in the country by the end of this month is 60,000.

"Ang tingin namin ni Prof. Guido, given the new trend, kasi ang tinitingnan ng tao 'yung numero eh. Dapat ang tingnan natin 'yung trend, pataas. So, maaaring lumampas pa sa aming forecast," Rye said.

Both professors are part of the UP research team that publishes reports on the COVID-19 pandemic since April.

David said that the "R-naught" or the number that represents the infectivity rate of COVID-19 in the country has increased from 1.28 to 1.6.

"'Yung surge kasi sa Cebu and also sa NCR, hindi pa na-contain 'yung sa NCR kaya dumadami 'yung cases," he added.

The professor stressed that the first wave of transmission of the virus is not yet over.

"Yung graph natin pataas lang siya so kung hindi pa siya bumaba, wala pa tayo sa ano, hindi pa tayo nakalagpas sa peak," David said.

David and Rye both recommended that the government and other stakeholders ramp up efforts to arrest the transmission of the virus before further easing the quarantine restrictions in the country.

They added that more efficient COVID-19 data reporting from the Department of Health would help improve policies in managing the health situation.

The number of COVID-19 infections in the Philippines reached over 46,000 after recording 2,099 fresh and late cases on July 6.—AOL, GMA News