Palace admits Philippines won’t beat experts’ COVID-19 forecast by end-July

Malacañang on Wednesday conceded that the Philippines will not be able to defeat the experts’ projection of 85,000 COVID-19 cases in the country by the end of July.

“I’m sad to say, we’re not,” presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said in an interview with CNN Philippines, after the country’s cases stood at 83,673 on Tuesday.  This marked the 14th consecutive day during which more than 1,300 new cases were reported by the government.

“To those who made fun of my excitement, well, you got what you wanted. The forecast happened, and I see no reason why we should celebrate,” he said.

Last month, Roque declared “victory” after the number of cases did not reach 40,000 by June 30 as earlier predicted by researchers from the University of the Philippines. He drew flak for his remarks as cases continue to climb.

“We should always aim to beat the forecast because we have the tools,” Roque said. 

“It can happen because it happened in Cebu already, that they were able to reduce the transmission and since Cebu was able to do it, we should be able to do it in Metro Manila as well.”

According to the UP researchers, the number of COVID-19 cases in the country may reach more than 85,000 by the end of July.

The Philippines, in fact, overtook that estimate on Wednesday, July 29, reaching 85,486 confirmed cases.

The projection was based on the assumption that the number of people an infected person could pass the virus to will remain and government interventions will not change significantly.

In Cebu, researchers said the reproduction number had decreased while the province was under enhanced community quarantine, the strictest quarantine level.

Cebu City will be under modified enhanced community quarantine until July 31.

President Rodrigo Duterte is expected to announce on Thursday the new quarantine classifications that will take effect on August 1. — BM, GMA News